#非农数据超预期

After Non-Farm Payrolls, the real game is just beginning

The release of non-farm data is only the "starting gun"; the real competition begins afterward.

When the data exceeds expectations, the market typically enters a phase where: bulls dare not chase, and bears dare not press. During this hesitation period, the most common occurrences are oscillations and false signals. For spectators, the most important thing is not to predict what the Federal Reserve will say next, but to observe capital behavior—whether there is divergence between the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk assets. If the dollar strengthens but risk assets do not hit new lows, it indicates that the market has begun to digest the negative news. Experience tells us that the truly dangerous moments are often not when the data is released, but when everyone "thinks they have understood it."

Exceeding expectations in non-farm data is more like a patience test than a direction decision.