Ethereum guards the $3000 mark, why is Bitcoin fluctuating at high levels? Latest market trend analysis

Ethereum was quoted at approximately $2,956.07 on December 17, with a slight increase of 0.88% over the past 24 hours. Although it temporarily regained some ground, it still struggles to hold near the key support level of $3,000. The intraday low touched $2,899.69.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is engaged in a tug-of-war around the $87,000 mark, with prices fluctuating between $87,310 and $87,885. Technical analysts indicate that if Bitcoin can maintain its current momentum, it may advance toward $90,000, with support levels gradually rising to the $86,000 area.

01 Market Overview: Divergence Between Ethereum and Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency market on December 17 showed a clear divergence. As the two leading assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum, exhibited subtle differences in their movements.

Bitcoin steadily rebounded from around $85,400 to approximately $87,800 but faced significant resistance at the $87,000 level. This sideways consolidation reflects cautious sentiment ahead of key data releases.

Ethereum’s performance was more fragile, with the price briefly falling below the $3,000 psychological level. As of December 17, Ethereum’s price had dropped below $3,000. This divergence highlights different market pressures faced by the two assets.

Other major cryptocurrencies also showed varied trends: Cardano up 0.98%, Solana up 2.33%, XRP up 3.38%, BNB up 1.42%. The market did not experience a broad decline but rather a structural adjustment.

02 Ethereum Dilemma: Technical and Fundamental Challenges

From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum is at a critical turning point. After breaking below $3,120, the price further declined to a low of $3,026.

Key resistance zones are concentrated between $3,150 and $3,200. Specifically, resistance near $3,150 coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from $3,273 down to $3,026. Next are the $3,180 area and the bearish trendline around $3,175.

A true “reversal signal” requires Ethereum to clearly break above $3,200. Achieving this would indicate a shift from “rebound correction” to “trend recovery,” with an upward target of $3,250.

Downside risks are also significant. If Ethereum cannot reclaim $3,200, initial support is around $3,080, with the first major support at $3,050. A decisive break below $3,050 would send Ethereum to test $3,020 and the critical psychological level of $3,000.

On-chain data reveal deeper issues. Active addresses have fallen to their lowest levels since May 2025. Over the past month, long-term holders have sold more than 847,000 ETH, worth approximately $2.5 billion.

03 Bitcoin Trends: Macroeconomic and Market Sentiment Battles

Bitcoin’s sideways movement on December 17 reflects market sensitivity to macroeconomic data. U.S. employment figures sent mixed signals—strong hiring but higher-than-expected unemployment.

This conflicting data caused a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Despite uncertainty, Bitcoin exchange reserves are at historic lows, supporting upward price movement and giving bulls a slight edge.

Market focus has shifted to upcoming CPI data, which will influence expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed’s rate decisions directly impact global liquidity, affecting the crypto market.

Notably, recent Bitcoin declines were mainly driven by long liquidation. Investors may benefit from risk management and gradual position building rather than emotional reactions to short-term volatility.

The sell-off reflects broader global risk transfer. Uncertainty around the next Fed chair, rising U.S. fiscal pressures, and signs of slowing consumer demand all weigh on investor sentiment.

04 On-Chain Data Insights: Ethereum’s Concerns and Opportunities

On-chain data show Ethereum faces challenges with waning network activity. Transaction fees have plummeted 45% over the past 30 days. Daily active addresses have decreased from about 483,000 at the start of the year to roughly 327,000.

The derivatives market also indicates cautious sentiment, with futures premium compressed to just 3%, showing a lack of demand for leveraged long positions.

Ethereum’s dominance in real-world asset tokenization remains a key long-term value support. Ethereum hosts $11.9 billion in non-stablecoin tokenized assets, accounting for 65.9% of the market share.

The MVRV Z-score is an important metric for assessing Ethereum’s relative fair value. After the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, Ethereum’s trading price was around $3,189, with an MVRV Z-score of 0.47. This suggests that even at significantly higher prices, Ethereum remains undervalued.

05 Institutional Movements: Divergence Between Traditional Finance and Crypto Whales

Institutional investor behavior presents a complex picture. BitMine added 102,259 ETH over the past week, with total holdings reaching 3,967,210 ETH, valued at $13.2 billion.

Whale funds are actively rotating between BTC and ETH, exchanging nearly 2,000 BTC for over 58,000 ETH. This indicates a strategic medium-term bullish outlook on Ethereum.

Traditional financial giants are also accelerating their Ethereum ecosystem deployment. JPMorgan announced the launch of its first tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, with an initial internal capital of $100 million as seed funding. This marks a move by leading global financial institutions toward digital asset tokenization on Ethereum.

Exchange-held ETH supply has dropped to 8.7%, a level not seen since 2015. Large amounts of ETH are being transferred to staking, re-staking, and institutional digital asset reserves.

06 Market Outlook: Balancing Short-Term Volatility and Long-Term Trends

In the short term, the market may continue to be influenced by macro factors and technical signals. Analysts expect that if Bitcoin can sustain its current momentum, it could approach $90,000.

For Ethereum, the key is whether it can hold the $3,000 psychological level. Falling below this support could lead to further declines toward $2,940.

Options markets show some long-term bullish signals. Analysts note that call options expiring in January 2026 with a strike price of $8,000 have seen a surge in trading volume, with over 10,700 contracts traded in 24 hours. The active trading of deeply out-of-the-money options reflects some market participants’ optimistic outlook on Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

Fundamentally, the introduction of spot ETFs bringing regulated funds into Ethereum, along with continuous accumulation of ETH by digital asset treasury companies, is gradually tightening market free float and increasing price sensitivity to marginal demand.

Most analysts remain optimistic about Ethereum’s future. According to consensus data from 12 leading analysts, the average target price for Ethereum by the end of 2025 is $6,124, representing about 107% upside from current levels.

Future Outlook

The overall crypto market is becoming more polarized. Bitcoin shows resilience at the $87,000 level, while Ethereum struggles near $3,000. Derivatives data indicate that if Ethereum falls below $3,000, the liquidation of long positions on major exchanges could reach $865 million.

Long-term holders are readjusting their positions, with institutions like JPMorgan continuing to view Ethereum as a core infrastructure for tokenization strategies. The proportion of ETH held by exchanges has fallen to its lowest since 2015, at just 8.7%.

The next directional move may depend on whether Ethereum can establish a solid bottom above $3,000 and whether Bitcoin can break through the $90,000 resistance.