#数字资产市场洞察 **Market Rhythm Key — Focus on Macro Data in Recent Focus**

Bitcoin's trend today is stable, but the real test lies in the next two days. Tomorrow, CPI and non-farm payroll data will be released, and the day after is the yen interest rate decision — these three time points will directly impact market nerves. The long-term low rate of the yen has enabled global investors to adopt arbitrage strategies: borrowing yen to buy US stocks and US bonds to earn interest rate spreads. Once the rate hike is implemented, arbitrage trades will likely reverse, potentially triggering a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, which could spill over into the crypto market, with panic sentiment easily spreading.

**Technical Analysis: Where is the Key Support?**

From the candlestick chart, Bitcoin faces strong resistance around 93,000-94,000. It previously fell from this area and is now stuck near 85,000 — this level is a watershed. If it falls below this, it could trigger panic selling. Conversely, if signs of stabilization appear around 85,000 and it refuses to fall further, that presents a buying opportunity. If tonight’s US stock market opens and Bitcoin weakens and pulls back, the 85,500-86,000 range could be considered for long positions.

Looking ahead to 2026, once the Fed’s rate cut window opens, it is likely to ignite a new bull market. But before that, Bitcoin may test the bottom — some institutions expect it could fall to 75,000 or even around 50,000 before starting to rise. Remember these two levels, as they represent future risks and opportunities.

**Ethereum and Other Coin Strategies**

For those going long around 3000 on Ethereum, the target rebound is 3150. Conversely, if Bitcoin stays above 88,000, a short position on Ethereum at 2980 can be tried, with proper stop-loss settings.

Coins like PIP, BEAT, FLOKS are highly volatile; short-term arbitrage still has potential. LAB showed a rebound earlier but did not truly break out; holding spot positions is advisable, as it may need a period of consolidation before breaking through.

PIPPIN bounced from support at 0.29-0.32, initially expected to rebound to around 0.45, but surged to 0.52-0.53. This coin’s control ratio by the whales is not low, so shorting should be cautious. However, it can be considered for short-term trades near support levels.

MON can be placed at 0.014 for bottom-fishing orders. ZEC recently broke the double top and started recovering; if the 416 level cannot hold, consider shorting. BEAT’s volatility is truly outrageous, with the whale’s tactics causing the funding rate to dance as well. The price fluctuates repeatedly; be cautious with small shorts around 2.4.