End of December 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Trading Execution Plan (12.20-12.31)

I. Key Price Levels for Core Assets (Real-time Updated Benchmark: 12.20 8:00)

Asset Core Support (Stop-Loss) Strong Support (Extreme Defense) Core Resistance (Breakthrough Line) Strong Resistance (Target Level)
BTC $84,000-$85,000 $80,000-$82,000 $88,000-$90,000 $92,000-$94,000
ETH $2,750-$2,800 $2,630-$2,700 $2,900-$2,950 $3,000-$3,300
Mainstream Altcoins (SOL/XRP/ADA) Recent Low Point -5% Recent Low Point -10% Recent High Point +3% Recent High Point +8%

II. Time Windows and Trigger Conditions

1. Short-term Critical Window (12.20-12.25)

- Long Entry Trigger: BTC stabilizes above $88,000 with 24-hour trading volume increase ≥20%; ETH breaks through $2,950 and stabilizes above the 50-day moving average
- Reduce Position Trigger: BTC falls below $84,000 and is not recovered within 30 minutes; ETH loses support at $2,750 accompanied by increased bearish volume
- Neutral Observation: Price fluctuates within the core support-resistance zone with volume below the 7-day moving average

2. End-of-Month Closure Window (12.26-12.31)

- Optimistic Scenario: Federal Reserve short-term treasury bond purchases release liquidity, BTC surges to $92,000-$94,000, ETH tests $3,300
- Pessimistic Scenario: No progress in regulatory negotiations + institutional funds continue to withdraw, BTC drops to $80,000, ETH touches $2,630
- Baseline Scenario: Range-bound consolidation, BTC around $85,000-$88,000, ETH around $2,750-$2,900

III. Position Management Rules

1. Total Position Limit: Crypto assets ≤40%, Stablecoins ≥60% (cash is king to cope with liquidity contraction)
2. Asset Allocation: BTC/ETH account for 70%-80% of crypto holdings, Altcoins ≤20% (avoid liquidity risk of small-cap coins)
3. Leverage Control: Strictly prohibit high leverage (≤2x), single trade risk exposure ≤3%-5% of account net value
4. Replenishment Rules: Only add to positions at strong support levels with bullish RSI divergence, maximum of 1 replenishment, replenishment amount ≤50% of initial position

IV. Long and Short Operation Trigger Signals

Long Entry Signal (execute if 2 or more conditions are met)

- Technical: Price stabilizes above core resistance on ≥4-hour chart, RSI exits oversold zone (BTC/ETH RSI >50)
- Capital: BTC/ETH exchange balances decrease, stablecoin (USDT) net inflow into the crypto market
- News: Positive progress in US crypto legislation negotiations, institutional funds flow back into ETFs

Short Entry Signal (execute if 2 or more conditions are met)

- Technical: Core support level is broken and not recovered, ETH head-and-shoulders pattern confirmed (break below $2,900 neckline)
- Capital: USDC continues to outflow from exchanges, futures short positions increase ≥15%
- News: Regulatory disagreements escalate, or large long positions are liquidated (single-day liquidation ≥$500 million)

V. Risk Prevention Points

1. Avoided Assets: MEME coins, low-liquidity altcoins (volume below 50% of 7-day average), DeFi sector temporarily avoid due to regulatory uncertainty
2. Time Risk Control: Gradually reduce leverage before December 31, cross-year positions ≤50% of crypto holdings
3. News Risk Control: Focus on December 28 US crypto legislation negotiations, Federal Reserve liquidity injection data, suspend opening positions on the day of sudden news