#美联储回购协议计划 2025 Crypto Market Barometer: Institutional Layout, On-chain Signals, and Clearing Risk Overview

As we reach the end-of-year sprint phase, the crypto market remains full of uncertainties. BlackRock's latest perspective has shattered many people's expectations—they have listed Bitcoin as the most important investment theme for 2025, alongside U.S. Treasuries and the tech giants, becoming the three pillars of a modern investment portfolio. This signal is significant, but the on-chain data seems to tell a different story.

**Market sentiment raises alarm**

Analysts point out that the current market sentiment and on-chain structure have already synchronized to indicate a bear market warning. What’s more painful is that the recent support level has turned into a resistance level — this usually means that selling pressure is accumulating. Meanwhile, the funding rates of mainstream CEX and DEX show that the market is once again turning fully bearish, and the pressure on bulls is evident.

**The movements of large holders reveal secrets**

Interestingly, the actions of institutions and whales are sending mixed signals. BlackRock recently increased its holdings by 4,534 ETH and 45.379 BTC, clearly still holding the line. However, on the other hand, a certain ETH whale involved in circular lending has cumulatively sold 30,600 ETH in the past week, with a single transaction dumping 10,000 ETH, indicating a clear escape intent. Meanwhile, a certain whale has hoarded 1.68 million UNI in the past week, currently showing a floating profit of 1.37 million USD.

The tug-of-war between $BTC and $ETH has become more intense. There are signs that Bitcoin deposit activities have resumed, with a net inflow of 1,596.23 BTC to CEX in the past 24 hours. However, at the same time, the "ultimate short" is still crazily cashing out, with a cumulative closure of over 50 million dollars this month.

**Liquidation risk is gradually approaching**

From a technical perspective, the pressure of liquidation intensity should not be underestimated. If Bitcoin falls below the key support level of $86,000, the cumulative liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX long positions will directly exceed $1.017 billion. The situation for Ethereum is equally severe – if it falls below $2,900, the liquidation intensity will reach $630 million.

The continuous decline of AVE has triggered a chain reaction on certain exchanges. The main long positions on Hyperliquid have frequently encountered liquidation, and the founder has even been forced to "bail out the market" at his own expense, currently incurring a floating loss of $2 million. Such episodes are often a precursor to worsening market sentiment.

**The divergence between ETFs and the spot market**

The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $84.6 million yesterday, finally breaking a streak of seven consecutive trading days of net outflows, which is a positive signal. However, the performance of the Bitcoin spot ETF is not as optimistic — it has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day net outflow reaching $142.2 million yesterday.

**The ecological boundary is expanding**

Ghana has officially legalized cryptocurrency trading and even plans to explore gold-backed stablecoins, which is an expansion of the geographical landscape of the entire ecosystem. At the same time, a certain crypto asset trading platform, Websea, announced the destruction of 57 million platform tokens WBS, and the deflationary expectations continue to ferment.

**Competition for Financing and Value Storage**

Matador Technologies plans to raise $58 million to acquire 1,000 BTC, and institutions remain confident in Bitcoin as a value storage asset. However, this stands in stark contrast to the current on-chain liquidation pressure.

Overall, the crypto market in 2025 is caught in a tug-of-war between "confidence and fear": on one side, traditional giants like BlackRock are increasing their positions, while on the other side, on-chain clearing risks and long pressure continue to accumulate. In the short term, the two lines of $86,000 and $2,900 are crucial—whether they break or not will determine the market rhythm going forward.

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