Recently, a lot of people in the background are asking the same question: "According to the four-year cycle, 2025 should be a bull run, so why is it falling like this?" To be honest, many people can't withstand the bear market, and the root cause lies in treating the "Bitcoin four-year cycle theory" as an ironclad rule, betting on the future based on historical patterns, without seeing clearly what is happening in the market. There is only one unchanging truth in the crypto world — change itself. Blindly believing in history? It will end in tragedy.

Let's talk about how the "four-year cycle theory" came about: because the mining rewards are halved every four years, the market has formed a pattern of "rising before halving and bear after halving." But this time? It's completely different.

The composition of participants in 2025 has undergone a dramatic change. The proportion of institutional funds has skyrocketed, and the market is no longer solely driven by halving cycles, but rather more influenced by fundamentals and macro data. CryptoQuant's data makes it very clear — Bitcoin demand had already fallen below the long-term trend line by early October. What does this signal historically mean? It signifies the opening whistle of a Bear Market, similar to the situation at the end of 2021.

Moreover, global regulation is also undergoing changes. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) will be fully implemented in 2025, and the compliance requirements for projects are extremely strict. Thousands of small projects have exited the market due to outrageous compliance costs, resulting in a 30% shrinkage in market liquidity. India and Hong Kong are also tightening regulations, which are variables that were not present in previous cycles.

So? Using the old cycle theory to bet on the new market is like using an expired map to find a new place. Getting lost is inevitable. The "four-year cycle theory" is no longer the main driving force of the market, at least not anymore.