2025-12-24 09:28:32

Christmas is approaching, but Bitcoin is trembling. On December 24, 2025, BTC briefly fell below the critical support level of $88,000. Sounds like a coincidence? Not really—just look back at history, and you'll find that crashes around Christmas have long been a pattern. Over the 15 Christmas cycles from 2010 to 2024, 11 times saw declines in early to mid-December, with a probability of up to 73.3%. The holiday that should be glorious has instead become a "day of suffering" for traders.

What exactly is hidden behind this? After years of experience, I’ve summarized three main culprits.

**First and foremost is the quarterly contract settlement, a "liquidity black hole."** Leverage trading in the crypto market has always accounted for over 60%, and quarterly contracts are the favorite tool for institutions. The problem is—these settlement dates (usually the last Friday of December) coincidentally clash with Christmas. One to two weeks before settlement, institutions, trying to avoid the muddy waters of the holiday, focus on one thing: rolling over contracts. As a result, a large volume of old contracts are closed simultaneously, creating wave after wave of sell-offs.

Numbers tell the story. From December 1 to 20, Bitcoin’s open interest in quarterly contracts plummeted from $20 billion to $15 billion, and spot trading volume also dropped from $61 billion to $48 billion. This strange phenomenon of "deleveraging without adding new positions" directly pushes prices downward.

Even more terrifying—chain reactions of liquidation triggered by high leverage positions. On December 15, Bitcoin only retraced 2.3%, but nearly $200 million worth of liquidation orders were triggered. Why so sensitive? Because on the night before settlement, market leverage had already been pushed to the limit. A slight breeze was enough to trigger a domino-like bloodbath.

This is the true nature of the Christmas curse—not that the festive joy dissipates, but that the market structure itself creates a perfect short-selling storm at this time.

BTC0.88%

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Tokenomics911

· 6h ago

73.3% probability, this data is really incredible, falling into traps year after year Liquidation of two billion USD just because of a 2.3% correction? Leverage traders deserve it Contract delivery date coinciding with Christmas holiday, institutions really choose the timing So, December should be about shorting and waiting, don't fight the market structure Christmas curse is so obvious, will there be more people hitting the wall next year? Reducing positions without adding new ones, countless retail investors have been trapped The term "liquidity black hole" is perfect, directly pushing BTC down Isn't this just institutions cutting losses before Christmas as usual?

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FrogInTheWell

· 21h ago

It's the same old story, quarterly settlements + leveraged liquidations, it's always the same every year... but can we really not hold @88000@? $200 million liquidation sounds scary, but that's basically what it is. Christmas curse? I think it's just institutions shaking out the market, retail investors getting chopped up happily. Will this be another bottom trap? Anyway, I'm on the sidelines watching the show. No matter how good the data looks, it can't save brothers who are fully leveraged. They really treat leverage as an ATM, so who's to blame, right?

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LayerZeroHero

· 21h ago

Oh no, it's the same old trick, contract settlement is just a harvesting machine I've seen through it long ago, the most exciting moment is when the leverage liquidates Quarterly contracts meeting Christmas, isn't this just a perfect trap? $200 million liquidation order, someone has lost everything again The term "liquidity black hole" is used perfectly, it's the institution's harvesting festival 73.3% probability, it's less a curse and more an inevitability Last year at this time, I was also in the trap, now I'm just watching the show

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WalletManager

· 21h ago

73.3% probability? Bro, I need to double-check this data... When it comes to contract settlement, it's indeed easy for institutions to cut. My multi-signature wallet hasn't moved since December; the risk factor is too high. --- $200 million liquidation order... That's why I've always emphasized self-custody of private keys. A week before settlement, I will transfer the chips to a cold wallet to avoid this bloodbath. --- Pushing leverage to the limit is correct; a slight breeze can trigger a liquidation. So, the long-term holding stance must be steady, don't chase those contract interest. --- $15 billion open interest plummeting looks satisfying, but this is the power of the short-selling mechanism. Doing this job requires a bit of gambler's spirit, but more importantly, rational wallet management. --- Quarterly settlement coinciding with Christmas, this is just market structural setup, which can't be seen through on-chain analysis; it's purely institutional scheming. --- I think, rather than trying to bottom fish, it's better to wait and see. Token storage security comes first. During Christmas, my asset allocation is two words: wait and see. --- $48 billion spot trading volume... It's a bit cold. At this time, it's actually a test of who is truly a value investor. I hold tight to my chips, waiting for a rebound.

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GasFeeDodger

· 21h ago

It's that same operation again, every Christmas has to be a bloodbath, institutions just love to cause trouble at this time. The contract liquidation move is really brilliant; a 2.3% correction can trigger a $200 million order. Leveraged monsters should wake up. Quarterly settlements coinciding with holidays, liquidity just disappears—this is a perfect storm... My stop-loss was hit once. Bitcoin: Merry Christmas, here's a 20% discount lol. Once again, high leverage got me. Looks like I need to seriously calculate how much to close this month.

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MercilessHalal

· 21h ago

Wow, quarterly settlements are really a devil It's a liquidity black hole and a chain of liquidations... With this combo, who can withstand it? I just want to know when we can get past the Christmas hurdle Why don't these institutions choose a different time for settlement? 88000 just disappeared like that, it's truly heartbreaking

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MoonMathMagic

· 22h ago

73.3% probability? That data is heartbreaking, every year getting cut on Christmas It's always been like this, contract settlement is a meat grinder, institutions run early and we're still sleepwalking If it breaks 88,000, it drops to 87,000; if it breaks 87,000, it drops to 80,000. After this wave, there will be another surge of positions, and leveraged traders will get beaten again So Christmas for crypto enthusiasts is like Black Friday. Happy holidays, but be careful of being trapped A $200 million liquidation order, just a 2.3% pullback and it exploded. This market is really at its limit, very fragile This is the real Christmas gift—a bloodbath feast delivered on time every year Settlement day and holidays are perfectly staggered, this move by institutions is basically a timed bomb. Are we all just here to be the backup? Liquidity black hole is right, trading volume has plummeted recently, everyone is reducing positions, no one is adding, can the price look good? Looks like the Christmas holiday should be turned into a high-alert period. Don’t ask me how I know—lessons learned through tears and blood

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