The secret behind gold's 120-fold surge over 10 years | Will the bullish glory of the past half-century repeat itself?

Why Has Gold Become the Eternal Store of Value?

Gold has been an important medium of exchange in civilization since ancient times. Due to its high density, excellent ductility, durability, and preservability, it not only serves as a circulating currency but also as jewelry, decorative items, and industrial raw materials. Historically, gold has been closely linked to monetary systems—until 1971, when U.S. President Nixon announced the dollar was decoupled from gold, and the Bretton Woods system officially collapsed. Since then, gold has begun to fluctuate freely at market prices.

From that moment on, gold’s price trend has become an important indicator for observing the global economy and geopolitical developments.

Remarkable Performance of Gold Prices Surge in the Past 10 Years

Looking solely at the performance over the past decade, gold has demonstrated an astonishing surge. From 2015 to 2025, the historical price of gold rose from approximately $1,060 per ounce to around $4,300, with a cumulative increase of over 300%.

Especially in the past two years, the performance has been epic:

• 2024: Gold prices started strong, breaking through $4,200 per ounce from around $2,690, with a surge of over 56%
• 2025 so far: Driven by escalating Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict uncertainties, U.S. trade policy adjustments, global stock market volatility, and other factors, gold repeatedly hit new all-time highs

This rapid surge reflects the market’s re-pricing of risks and a strong demand for safe-haven assets.

Reviewing the Four Major Bull Cycles of Gold Prices Over 50 Years

To understand the current gold market, it’s essential to view it within a 50-year historical context. Since the decoupling of the dollar and gold in 1971, international gold prices have experienced four major upward cycles.

First Wave: 1970-1975 Confidence Crisis

After decoupling, markets feared the dollar would become worthless, causing gold prices to skyrocket from $35 to $183, a surge of over 400%. With the oil crisis and U.S. money printing fueling the rise, gold became the preferred asset for wealth preservation. However, after the oil crisis eased, people realized the dollar was still practical, and gold prices retreated to around $100.

Second Wave: 1976-1980 Geopolitical Shocks

The second oil crisis in the Middle East, the Iran hostage crisis, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and other events triggered a global economic recession and soaring inflation in the West. Gold responded with a surge from $104 to $850, an increase of over 700%. But after excessive speculation and as crises subsided and the Cold War ended, gold prices entered a 20-year consolidation phase, mostly fluctuating between $200 and $300.

Third Wave: 2001-2011 Financial Crises

The 9/11 attacks triggered a global anti-terrorism war, and the U.S. government’s massive military spending led to rate cuts and debt issuance, fueling a housing bubble. The rate hike cycle eventually triggered the 2008 financial crisis, and the U.S. implemented QE to rescue the market. Gold experienced a decade-long bull market, soaring from $260 to $1921, a surge of over 700%. After the European debt crisis, prices peaked and then retreated to around $1,000.

Fourth Wave: Since 2015, Safe-Haven Demand

The past decade has witnessed another surge in gold. Policies like negative interest rates, global de-dollarization trends, 2020’s ultra-loose QE, the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the Red Sea crisis have continuously pushed gold prices above $2,000. The 2024-2025 period is even more dramatic, with prices skyrocketing from around $2,800 to $4,300 in a short time, creating unprecedented records in human history.

Over 50 years, gold has surged from $35 to $4,300, an increase of over 120 times. This is not just a numerical leap but a reflection of the global revaluation of risk assets.

Gold vs. Stocks: Who Is the True Winner?

Investors often ask: Is gold a good investment? The answer depends on the time window and reference points.

Looking at the past 50 years:

• Gold increased by 120 times
• The Dow Jones Index rose from 900 to 46,000 points, an increase of about 51 times
• Gold outperformed

Looking at the past 30 years:

• Stock returns are even better
• Gold comes second
• Bonds lag behind

However, gold’s fatal weakness is volatility. During 1980-2000, gold prices hovered between $200 and $300 for 20 years, causing investors to lose everything. How many 50-year periods are there in life to wait?

This is the core paradox of investing in gold: Long-term, gold’s return is not inferior to stocks; short-term, poor holding strategies can lead to no progress for a decade.

Is Gold Suitable for Long-Term Holding or Swing Trading?

Based on historical patterns, gold’s price movements show a clear rhythm: long-term bull → sharp decline and correction → stable consolidation → restart of the bull.

Therefore, the investment logic for gold should be:

• Catch the bull wave to maximize gains
• Short sell during sharp declines to hedge risks
• Avoid blind long-term holding, which can trap you in consolidation phases

Another key pattern is: Even after a bull ends and prices fall, each subsequent low point tends to be higher. Over the past 50 years, lows have been at $35, $100, $200, and $1,000, indicating long-term support levels are continuously rising. Investors need not fear declines but should master the rhythm of entry and exit.

Five Ways to Invest in Gold Compared

There are various channels for investing in gold, each with pros and cons:

1. Physical Gold

• Advantages: Good privacy, can also serve as decoration
• Disadvantages: Difficult to trade, no liquidity premium

2. Gold Savings Account

• Advantages: Portable, can convert to physical gold
• Disadvantages: Banks do not pay interest, buy-sell spreads are large, suitable for long-term holding only

3. Gold ETFs

• Advantages: Better liquidity than savings accounts, tradable instantly, corresponds to physical gold
• Disadvantages: Management fees, during long sideways markets, value may gradually decline

4. Gold Futures and CFDs(CFD)

• Advantages: Leverage support, long and short options, low transaction costs, high capital efficiency
• Disadvantages: Higher risk, requires professional knowledge and risk management

5. Gold Mining Stocks

• Advantages: Participate in industry growth, can receive dividends
• Disadvantages: Not perfectly correlated with gold prices, affected by company operations

Investment Difficulty and Return Rankings: Gold, Stocks, Bonds

The sources of returns for the three major assets are entirely different:

• Gold: Gains come from price differences, no yield, key is timing of entry and exit
• Bonds: Returns from interest payments, require increasing units and tracking risk-free rate changes
• Stocks: Returns from corporate growth, require stock-picking insight and long-term patience

In terms of investment difficulty ranking: Bonds easiest > Gold next > Stocks hardest

In terms of returns over the past 50 years, gold performed best, but over the past 30 years, stocks have been stronger.

How Do Economic Cycles Determine Asset Allocation?

Markets are ever-changing; no single asset is always the winner. The correct investment philosophy is:

During economic growth → allocate to stocks (corporate profits are optimistic, capital chases)

During recession → allocate to gold and bonds (risk aversion, seeking preservation and fixed income)

A more prudent approach is to set reasonable proportions of stocks, bonds, and gold based on individual risk appetite. Unexpected events like the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation hikes, geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, and diversified multi-asset allocation can effectively hedge volatility risks.

The Ultimate Revelation of 10-Year Gold Surge

The remarkable performance of gold prices over the past decade is not accidental but a necessary result of worsening global risk environments. From multiple perspectives, gold is expected to continue this momentum over the next 10 years—so long as global political uncertainties persist, central banks remain eager to buy gold, and geopolitical conflicts continue.

However, the secret to successful gold investment is not to buy and never sell, but to identify bull cycles and master the timing of entry and exit. Wise investors who have witnessed gold’s 120-fold surge are not just holders but swing traders.

Will gold shine again in the next 50 years? The answer depends on whether you truly understand its temperament.