Q3 US GDP grew by 4.3% year-over-year, making headlines for a while, but how meaningful is this number? Essentially, it’s just annualizing the three-month sequential growth rate—just a data game. Plus, with the government shutdown exceeding 40 days in Q4 and revisions still pending, claiming a "strong recovery" now is premature.

Interestingly, the US stock market reacted by falling in response to the GDP data. The reason is straightforward: the better the economic data, the more reason the Federal Reserve has to hold steady, and investors fear their rate cut expectations will be disappointed. As a result, a certain leader immediately spoke out, with even more straightforward logic—if the economy is doing well, rates should be cut significantly to boost growth further, and inflation can be dealt with later.

This logic sounds absurd, but the market is already rehearsing it. The offshore RMB is approaching the 7.01 level; breaking 7 is not a distant possibility. Last September, the exchange rate was around 6.9, and only after the Fed shifted to slowing rate cuts and restarting balance sheet reduction did the RMB rebound. The current situation feels familiar—once 7.0 is lost, the depreciation trend may begin in earnest.

Just look at the performance of commodities—gold, silver, and copper prices all hit historical highs. Meanwhile, the cycles of Ethereum and Bitcoin are also starting to stir. 2025 might just be the appetizer, with 2026 being the main course.

Numbers can be polished, but trends don’t lie. In the game of global liquidity flooding, some have already revealed their cards.