A recent report from a financial institution has set Bitcoin's target price for next year at $143,000, which immediately caused a buzz in the community with various opinions emerging. As an experienced observer of this market, I also want to discuss some insights behind this.

First, let's look at what the report says. The forecast presents three scenarios: a neutral case around $140,000, an optimistic scenario exceeding $180,000, and even in the worst case, not falling below $78,000. Why such a view? The main logic is that the US will make substantial breakthroughs in digital asset regulation. Once policies become clearer, institutional entry will accelerate significantly. Is this logic plausible? At least given the current political environment, this expectation isn't unreasonable.

But more than the forecast itself, what’s more worth paying attention to are some real signals currently appearing in the market. The enthusiasm for institutional bottom-fishing is increasing, and the net funds flowing into the market through compliant channels like ETFs this year have already exceeded seven times the newly produced Bitcoin globally. In other words? Buying demand far exceeds new supply. If this gap persists and widens, the support for prices can be imagined.

There's also an interesting detail. A Bitcoin address that had been dormant for nearly ten years suddenly became active recently. The coins inside were originally worth only a few hundred dollars, but now their value has increased nearly ten thousand times. The activation of such old addresses sometimes reflects the true mindset of long-term holders—some people really can hold on. While this doesn't represent the overall trend, it at least shows that there are no shortages of determined players in the market.

Of course, every market has risks, and this one is no exception. Last month, there was a significant correction, especially with leveraged positions being liquidated thoroughly. This is normal—when the market is euphoric, leverage accumulates more and more, and once sentiment reverses, the downward force can be very fierce.

And we must keep an eye on regulatory developments. Different countries have very different attitudes, and any policy shift can directly crush short-term sentiment. This is an unpredictable variable that cannot be ignored at any time.