The market performance today was relatively weak, which prompted me to re-examine the distribution of BTC liquidation levels.

Careful observation of the liquidation heatmap reveals that the liquidation density for high leverage longs below the price of 86,000 remains quite concentrated. But there's a key detail—below 86,000, the volume of liquidated positions has significantly decreased. The most obvious sign is that, as you look lower, the liquidation volume lines at corresponding prices become shorter, showing a rapid decay.

What does this imply? To put it plainly, the probability of triggering a chain liquidation by smashing through in one go is not very high. From another perspective, the more likely scenario is: the price first breaks below the 86,000 threshold, then begins to rebound, entering a simple upward liquidation process. Based on the current price action, it may look weak on the surface, but it's actually just a technical retracement.

However, there's a practical issue—after falling, if the price stops falling and stabilizes, does that necessarily mean it will continue to rise? I tend to think it won't be that smooth. Even if a rebound starts, it is very likely to fall again after reaching a certain height. Judging from the current situation, the target range for this rebound is more likely to be between 87,900 and 88,400. Whether it can break through that level will depend on how market sentiment changes.