## The Mexican Stock Market Takes Off: 2025 Marks a Turning Point for Investors

The Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) is writing an unexpected story in 2025. While major U.S. indices remain flat or in the red, the S&P/BMV IPC has gained 21.7% over the past 12 months, surpassing even the most optimistic analyst expectations. This performance is especially notable given a context marked by 25% tariffs on Mexican products and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.

## Mexican Companies Listed on the Stock Market: The Drivers of the Rally

Behind this rally are the large corporations that dominate the BMV. The five companies with the highest market capitalization — Walmart de México, América Móvil, Grupo México, Fomento Económico Mexicano (FEMSA), and Grupo Financiero Banorte — account for 44.2% of the total market capitalization, serving as pillars supporting the stability of the entire system. In the main index S&P/BMV IPC, these same companies represent 55.8% of the total weight.

## BMV: a Small but Strategic Exchange

With just 145 companies listed (140 of them Mexican), the BMV is the second-largest in Latin America and the fifth in the Americas. The contrast with the United States is dramatic: the five largest North American corporations exceed the total market value of the entire Mexican Stock Exchange by more than 15 times. This extreme concentration in a few companies means that closely following the leading corporations provides an almost complete snapshot of the Mexican market.

The S&P/BMV IPC, composed of 35 stocks weighted by market capitalization (revised twice a year in March and September), is the most reliable thermometer of overall performance. With an annualized return of 29% in the last year, 15% over five years, and 6.44% over a decade, it reflects volatility but also long-term opportunities.

## The Top Five Corporations: Their Numbers in 2025

**Walmart de México:** With a market cap of 1.10 billion MXN, it is the dominant retailer in Central America. In Q2 2025, its sales grew to 246.254 billion pesos compared to 227.415 billion in the previous year. Net profit was 11.227 billion pesos. Barron’s maintains a "overweight" recommendation with a target price of $63.97.

**América Móvil:** The multinational telecom reaches a market cap of 70.75 billion USD, operating in 23 countries with over 323 million users. In Q3 2025, it recorded revenues of 232.920 billion pesos (year-over-year growth 4.2%) and net profit of 22.700 billion pesos. The analyst consensus recommends buying with a 12-month target price of 21.323 MXN.

**Grupo México:** This conglomerate with a market cap of 1.27 billion MXN saw its revenues grow 11% in Q3 2025, reaching 4.59 billion dollars, with net profit soaring over 50% to 1.29 billion dollars. The average target price from consensus is 149.42 MXN, suggesting a potential decline of 6.9%.

**FEMSA:** With a market cap of 583.28 billion MXN, the world’s largest Coca-Cola bottler recorded consolidated revenues of 214.638 billion pesos in Q3 (growth 9.1%), although net profit fell 36.8% to 5.838 billion due to exchange losses. The dividend yield stands at 7.4%.

**Banorte:** The second-largest bank in Mexico and Latin America has a market cap of 534.70 billion MXN. In Q3 2025, it reported a net result of 13.008 billion pesos, down 9% year-over-year. Its low PER ratio (9.02) and dividend yield of 7.30% position it as a defensive asset. Barron’s recommends "overweight."

## Favorable Macroeconomic Environment Despite Challenges

The Mexican economy navigates 2025 with greater stability than expected. Inflation is falling toward 3.5% annually, allowing the Bank of Mexico to implement gradual rate cuts. The peso remains resilient, avoiding sharp depreciations even during moments of trade tension. This behavior reduces operational cost pressures for Mexican companies listed on the stock exchange.

Nearshoring continues to attract foreign investment, while domestic consumption remains solid as a cushion against external volatility. The S&P/BMV IPC stays close to 63,000–64,000 points, reflecting international investor confidence in Mexico as an investment destination.

## Portfolio Rebalancing Opportunities

For investors traditionally concentrated in U.S. assets, the performance contrast is revealing. While indices like the S&P 500 have modest gains, the large Mexican companies listed on the stock exchange have led a sustained rally. A balanced strategy could combine selective exposure to leading Mexican corporations, presence in quality North American assets, and local bonds from both economies, capturing performance differences while mitigating trade, monetary, and geopolitical risks in a year of significant transformations.