The K-shaped recovery narrative that's been dominating conversations lately doesn't quite hold up when you dig into the details. That's the skeptical take from a former CEA Chair, and honestly, there's something worth unpacking here.

The K-shape theory suggests that while some sectors and asset classes surge upward (the top prong), others stagnate or decline (the bottom prong). It's become the go-to explanation for why crypto markets can pump while traditional equities lag—or vice versa. But the more you look at actual economic data, the messier this picture gets.

When wealth concentration patterns diverge this sharply, you've got institutional players making very different bets than retail investors. Some are piling into digital assets and tech, others retreating into bonds and traditional hedges. Meanwhile, the broad middle is stuck navigating inflation, employment volatility, and asset price swings that don't always follow the script.

The implication? Don't assume the recovery shape stays the same. Market dynamics can shift faster than the macro narrative updates.