Gold approaches $5000.. Will Egypt and the Gulf witness a price explosion?

It is no secret that the yellow metal stole the spotlight in 2025, experiencing dramatic jumps reaching a peak of $4,381 per ounce in October, before pulling back slightly. But the real question on investors’ minds now is: Will gold prices rise further in 2026? Early answers from Wall Street analysts: yes, strongly.

We talked about gold prices as if we were discussing a new tech stock, but the difference is that gold carries real economic weight. With declining real bond yields, a persistent weak dollar, and central banks’ desire to diversify their reserves, the yellow metal has become an indispensable safe haven in a world full of uncertainty.

The Data Speaks Honestly

The World Gold Council clarified the picture with undeniable numbers: global demand for gold surged to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with value increasing by a crazy 45% annually. Not only that, but gold ETFs attracted massive inflows, bringing managed assets to $472 billion with holdings of 3838 tons.

This means one thing: investors are not playing day trading games; they are betting long-term. And when genuine investors do that, prices move seriously.

Central Banks: The Silent Player Changing the Rules

If you’re wondering who is buying all this gold, the answer is central banks. China, Turkey, and India are not neutral in this game.

The People’s Bank of China alone added more than 65 tons in the first half of 2025, continuing this steady buying. Turkey crossed the 600-ton reserve mark. Now, 44% of the world’s central banks hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024.

What does this mean? There is a long-term strategic shift away from the dollar, and gold is the optimal choice. This buying pressure from major countries will not stop soon.

Tight Supply and Increasing Demand… An Ideal Equation for Rise

Here lies the real problem: mine production reached only 856 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of just 1%. Meanwhile, demand is rising at a much faster pace.

Worsening the situation, recycled gold decreased by 1%, as gold owners prefer to hold onto it rather than sell, hoping prices will continue to rise. Mining costs have now reached $1470 per ounce, the highest in a full decade.

The result? Very limited supply, boundless demand.

The Fed Plays in Favor of Gold

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, with expectations of an additional cut in December. When interest rates fall, bond yields decline, and thus the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.

Additionally, forecasts indicate that the Fed may target an interest rate around 3.4% by the end of 2026. This accommodative monetary environment is fertile ground for gold.

Geopolitical Tensions Put Gold on a Golden Track

Trade wars between the US and China, tensions in the Middle East, supply chain concerns. Geopolitical uncertainty alone increased demand for gold by 7% year-over-year.

The more uncertain the environment, the greater the appeal of safe havens, and gold remains the first choice for banks and major investors.

Weak Dollar and No Real Yields on Bonds

The dollar index declined by 7.64% from its peak in early 2025, and US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to around 4.07%. This weak environment for the dollar and bonds is very strong for gold.

Major Banks’ Forecasts for 2026: Gold Approaching $5000

Now, the part everyone has been waiting for:

HSBC expects gold to rise to $5000 in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4600 throughout the year.

Bank of America also raised its forecast to $5000, as a potential peak, but warned of short-term corrections.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4900 per ounce.

J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach $5055 by mid-2026.

In other words: the consensus range among major banks is between $4800 and $5000.

What About Egypt and the Gulf?

Here’s the key question for us Arabs:

In Egypt: If gold reaches $5000, that translates to about 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158% increase from current prices.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE: Similarly, (5000 dollars), prices would translate to around 18,750 to 19,000 SAR and 18,375 to 19,000 AED.

But remember: these forecasts assume exchange rate stability (which is achieved in Saudi Arabia and the UAE), continued global demand, and no major economic shocks.

The Risk: A Near-Term Correction on the Horizon

Don’t wake up entirely optimistic. HSBC warned of a possible correction down to $4200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits. Goldman Sachs warned that prices above $4800 could test price credibility.

But J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that’s hard to break downward.

Technical Analysis: Neutral Now, But Upward Trend

Gold closed at $4065 on November 21, 2025. From a technical perspective:

• Strong support at $4000: breaking this level could open the door to a decline toward $3800.
• First resistance at $4200: breaking it could lead to $4400 then $4680.
• RSI at 50: indicates neutrality, no overbought or oversold signals.
• MACD positive: the overall trend remains upward.

Technical summary: gold is in a range between $4000 and $4220, but the overall picture is positive as long as the price stays above the main trend line.

The Harsh and the Sweet Truth

The harsh truth: gold price forecasts depend on a weak economic environment: slow growth, high debt, geopolitical tensions. If conditions suddenly improve, gold may not reach $5000.

The sweet truth: it’s very unlikely that conditions will improve quickly. Global debt exceeds 100% of GDP, and growth is slowing in major economies. Gold will remain the safe haven for years to come.

Summary: Why Is Gold Rising?

Simply: Accommodative monetary policies + high debt + geopolitical uncertainty = rising gold.

This equation will stay valid throughout 2026 unless an economic miracle happens (which is unlikely).

So, will gold prices rise? Based on data and logic: yes, and it’s likely to approach $5000 before the end of 2026.