#比特币与黄金战争 Bought BTC at the beginning of the year, held it all the way without selling, and now it’s actually down by 8%.

I remember the market at the beginning of January—Bitcoin was hovering around $95,000, but now it’s only over $87,000. If I hadn’t taken profits at the high point, after a year of tossing around, my account would be in the red 😅.

Comparing the performance of various assets this year is really eye-opening—checked the data, and this year’s return for $BTC is -6%, those who invested in gold earned 66.83%, and even A-shares saw a 20.23% increase. Making money in the crypto world is indeed difficult; losing money has become the norm.

This is not an isolated case. Looking at historical data from 2015 to 2025, $BTC is either the best or the worst among all investment assets, with no middle ground. According to Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycle, 2021 and 2017 were bull years, and during the subsequent bear markets, the first year saw huge losses, with recovery coming in the second and third years. This year’s market is a bit special—after peaking in early October, it started to decline, and by the end of the year, it had retraced 8 percentage points. If we follow historical patterns, 2026 might see even bigger losses, so we need to be mentally prepared.

But to say it again, historical data is just a reference; relying on it too much is like trying to carve a boat on a stone.

Let’s also look at the size gap between $BTC and gold. This year, gold has been on a strong bull run, with a market cap surpassing $31.424 trillion, and the gap with Bitcoin has widened from 12 times to 18 times. Moreover, $BTC’s global asset ranking has fallen to eighth place, with a market cap of $1.7 trillion, which is actually lower than silver’s $4 trillion.

These numbers fluctuate every year. Whether Bitcoin can truly become digital gold still depends on time. Our current situation is like playing an infinite game—there’s no endpoint, only experiencing the process. When it’s time to cash out and improve life, don’t hesitate; when it’s time to recognize mistakes, do so. Then, continue to optimize strategies in the next cycle.