There is a question worth facing directly: Is the "four-year cycle" of Bitcoin still valid? The answer might be more brutal than you think—it's still valid.

From a price structure perspective, this cycle still follows the historical rhythm: low point → main rally → high-level consolidation → deep retracement → bottom formation → repeat. Nothing new.

The high point of this cycle has likely already occurred or will be realized between Q2 and Q3 of 2025. This area feels more like a cycle top rather than the middle of anything. Even if new highs are reached later, it's probably just a repeat of the top, not the start of a new main rally.

The key question is: when will the low come? Historical data points to Q2 to Q3 of 2026. From the high to the low, the cycle typically takes about a year, with retracement depths usually between 55% and 70%. In price terms, that translates to $40,000 to $65,000 being the most likely range, with extreme cases possibly reaching above $30,000, but the probability of dropping below $20,000 is very small.

Looking at a longer timeframe, the four-year cycle is a "low-to-low" rhythm. If a new bottom forms around mid-2026, the next true cycle high is most likely to appear around 2029, near Q3. Historically, such high points tend to occur 12 to 18 months after the halving, not in the halving year itself.

How to view the current position? We are already in the early to mid-stage after this cycle's high point. The next year will basically be characterized by high volatility and repeated fluctuations—don't expect a comfortable trend. The real long-term opportunity window might be broader between 2026 and 2029.