An old address that had been dormant for a full ten years suddenly moved yesterday, and the community immediately exploded. Most people immediately shouted, "Whale is about to sell off, run now!" But I checked the on-chain data, stared at this matter for a while, and felt it wasn't that simple.

**Don't panic first, see clearly who is moving**

The ETH in this address are all from when Ethereum launched in 2015, so the cost basis is basically very low. Over ten years, this holding has experienced many ups and downs—bull markets soaring, bear markets crashing—but it has never moved once. Would such a person be impulsive enough to dump? Clearly not.

This kind of "fossil-level" holder suddenly moving their assets usually indicates other intentions. Maybe transferring to a cold wallet for safety, maybe participating in staking to earn yields, or maybe just reorganizing assets. If you jump to the conclusion that they are dumping, that logic is too hasty.

**Market sentiment has hit rock bottom, but that’s actually worth noting**

Recently, all major communities are filled with pessimistic voices and complaints. When does this extreme panic usually appear? Usually just before a market reversal. When most people think there’s no hope, the market often turns around with a counter-move.

"Be fearful when others are greedy" sounds cliché, but it plays out every year. Those who need to cut losses already did so; those who hold on are either true believers or have already resigned. As long as there is one piece of good news, the rebound could be so fast that you won’t be able to react.

**Whales haven't left the market, just repositioning**

I also observe data from other large holders. Interestingly, many whales are quietly adjusting their positions. The address activity is becoming more frequent, but the amount of coins moving out is decreasing—what does this indicate? They are choosing to hold firm with real actions, just optimizing their holdings structure.