It's December 24th again—Christmas Eve. Looking back at this month, Bitcoin's market action has been quite interesting—no legendary "Christmas frenzy" with a one-sided surge, but rather oscillating around $88,000, with sluggish trading volume and narrow volatility. Everyone is familiar with this holiday market pattern—liquidity dries up, trading slows down. But you know what, this might not be a bad thing. I believe the market is building momentum, just waiting to see which direction to take after the holidays.

Why is the market so weak before Christmas? The root cause lies in the derivatives market’s settlement mechanism. Every year at the end of December (usually the first business day after Christmas), quarterly contracts expire. One to two weeks before expiration, the entire market enters a "rollover" phase. That’s when trouble begins—banks may shut down for the holidays, institutions want to avoid risk, and they start closing out old contracts early. A large number of institutions simultaneously dump their positions, leading to concentrated selling pressure. Data shows that in early December, open interest in Bitcoin quarterly futures significantly declined, and spot trading volume also shrank, with the "deleveraging without adding new positions" move directly holding prices down. Even more intense, when high-leverage positions trigger chain liquidations, the decline can be amplified. During this month, a small dip caused nearly $200 million in liquidations—enough to illustrate how fragile the market is.

Another key factor is the year-end routine of institutions. Western institutions mostly close their books by December 31st, and the 2-3 weeks before Christmas are the golden window for locking in profits and raising cash. For high-risk assets like Bitcoin, institutions all want to "cash out safely." The market in December 2025 is likely to reflect this year-end pressure to close positions.