Recent US economic data is quite interesting—Q3 2025 GDP annualized growth rate surged to 4.3%, hitting a two-year high, indeed exceeding many people's expectations. Strong consumer spending rebound, export growth, and government expenditure boosts all look very optimistic.

But here comes a strange contrast: the labor market is actually deteriorating. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest in four years; new job creation has significantly slowed, with only tens of thousands of new positions; corporate hiring freezes and layoffs are frequently reported, and employment growth in many industries has stalled. This phenomenon of "GDP soaring while employment is bleeding" essentially means productivity is racing ahead.

AI investments are flooding in wildly, with companies expanding output through technological upgrades and automation—where is the need for大量 hiring? This is the so-called "jobless recovery"—the economy is growing, but job opportunities are not keeping up. Coupled with a sharp decline in net immigration inflows, the labor supply is already tight, and federal government jobs are shrinking, making the situation even more complex.

The benefits of economic growth mainly flow to high-income groups and the tech sector, while wages for low- and middle-income earners are slowing down, and consumer confidence is weakening. This "K-shaped" divergence will gradually erode the overall employment expansion momentum. In the short term, impressive GDP figures cannot hide the risks of employment weakness—if the labor market continues to cool, consumer spending will decline, and the entire growth engine may stall.

The US economy is undergoing a transformation, and this abnormal phenomenon of "high growth, low employment" may have already become the new normal. This is a test for policymakers and also warrants serious consideration from market participants regarding the chain reactions involved.