Holiday Shopping Season 2025: Which Retail Giants Can Deliver Stock Price Momentum?

The approaching holiday retail season presents compelling opportunities for equity investors, with several major players positioned to capture significant market share. Recent earnings guidance and year-to-date performance reveal divergent trajectories among e-commerce and retail leaders—and substantial room for upside reassessment.

Market Backdrop: Record-Breaking Holiday Sales Expected

The National Retail Federation forecasts that November and December 2025 combined will mark a historic milestone, with holiday retail sales potentially surpassing $1 trillion for the first time ever. This projection represents 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year growth, signaling resilient consumer spending despite economic headwinds. Historically, retail equities have demonstrated measurable outperformance versus the S&P 500 index during the four-week window surrounding major shopping events.

Three Stocks to Watch: Performance Metrics and Growth Catalysts

Shopify (SHOP): The Momentum Leader

Shopify has emerged as a standout performer, with shares climbing 36% year-to-date in 2025. The platform’s ecosystem continues to gain traction, with third-party merchants utilizing the system generating $11.5 billion in combined sales during the previous Black Friday and Cyber Monday period—a 24% year-over-year jump. Institutional investors are bullish, with consensus price targets averaging $179, suggesting 22%+ upside from current valuations. Analysts expect gross merchandise volume to reach new record levels during the 2025 holiday sprint.

Walmart (WMT): Omnichannel Strength

Walmart’s integrated online-offline strategy has translated into tangible stock market gains, with a 13% year-to-date advance positioning the company squarely in line with broad-market index performance. The retailer’s multi-phased promotional calendar (spanning mid-November through early December) reflects operational confidence. Wall Street consensus pricing sits at $116 per share, indicating approximately 15% appreciation potential from current levels. The company’s competitive pricing architecture and expansive customer footprint continue to drive market share gains during high-traffic selling periods.

Amazon (AMZN): The Underperformance Opportunity

Despite commanding dominance in U.S. e-commerce, Amazon stock has lagged considerably, posting merely 1% year-to-date returns—a stark underperformance relative to the S&P 500 and fellow “Magnificent Seven” constituents. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue to a range of $206 billion to $213 billion, representing 10%–13% year-over-year growth. The extended promotional window (spanning November 20 through December 1) encompasses electronics, toys, and beauty merchandise—historically the highest-conversion categories. This combination of growth visibility coupled with depressed valuation relative to peers may offer attractive entry points for patient investors considering amazon stock price prediction frameworks extending into 2026 and beyond. The potential revaluation catalyst remains substantial.

Investment Takeaway

Historical precedent suggests that retail equity valuations often re-rate upward in the weeks surrounding the holiday shopping surge. Among the three candidates, Shopify appears fully priced for optimism, while Walmart reflects balanced risk-reward. Amazon’s valuation disconnect relative to fundamental growth metrics presents the most asymmetric opportunity for contrarian positioning during the coming months.