#比特币流动性 The Fed's recent moves are indeed interesting. Last night, they announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which at first glance seemed very dovish. However, when the dot plot was released—showing only one more rate cut before 2026—the market's immediate reaction was: "Isn't this hawkish?" U.S. Treasury yields responded by climbing to 4.2%, directly contradicting the rate cut expectations.

Trump's criticisms came quickly as well. He issued multiple accusations: the Federal Reserve building renovation project is over budget by $2.5 billion, interest rates are high, economic growth is hindered, and if they don't cut rates significantly soon, they might have to replace the leadership. Powell is really in a tough spot: with only five months left in his term, he has to choose between political pressure and monetary policy independence.

The logic here is clear. Once the independence of the Fed is compromised, market expectations for inflation will become mispriced. Investors will demand higher risk premiums to hedge against political uncertainty. The result could be continued rises in long-term bond yields, with 4.5% not being a hard ceiling.

From an asset allocation perspective, both bonds and equities face pressure in this environment. The high-yield risk premium indicates that growth stocks and highly leveraged assets are under stress, and cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, are also unlikely to remain unaffected. The assets most resilient tend to be those with solid fundamentals and ample cash flow—whether in traditional markets or on-chain.

When Powell steps down in May 2026, it will be a watershed moment. By then, the new Fed chair's policy stance and market expectations for interest rates could shift significantly, potentially triggering large volatility. Currently, the strategy is more about seeking relatively certain opportunities amid this macro uncertainty. Which assets have you been watching that perform better and are more resilient during this round of adjustment?