2025-12-25 07:24:35

When Bitcoin surged to $88,000, BlackRock made a move—reducing holdings by 22,900 coins, worth over $200 million. Once this signal was out, many people started to feel nervous, wondering if Wall Street giants are trying to brake this rally.

But do we really need to worry that much? Taking a broader view of Bitcoin's history, we can actually find an interesting pattern. Over the ten years from 2014 to 2023, Bitcoin has never experienced two consecutive years of annual losses. After each major correction, it often rebounds even more strongly—that's not coincidence, but the intrinsic logic of the market.

Looking back at the records: in 2014, a bear market; in 2015, a rebound; in 2018, a crash; in 2019, a rapid recovery; in 2022, silence; and in 2023, a nearly 160% explosive rise. On average, these rebounds after corrections can reach 126%. Based on this cycle, if 2025 ends up being a down year, then the target range for Bitcoin in 2026 could be between $125,000 and $200,000.

So, BlackRock's reduction isn't necessarily a bearish signal; rather, it can be understood as a routine institutional operation—taking profits, balancing positions, short-term tactical adjustments. Such actions are quite normal in institutional investing. They are different from the long-term cycle logic of "big gains after a down year."

The real bull market often quietly begins when the battle between bulls and bears is most intense and retail investors are most confused. Now? It might be precisely a test of who can withstand this unease. Ignoring the daily market noise, trusting in the power of cycles, these fluctuations may just be the prelude to dawn.

BTC0.18%

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GateUser-00be86fc

· 13h ago

Is BlackRock selling off causing panic? These institutions are like that—they take profits when they've made enough, completely different from retail investors' mindset. The historical cycle is right here; it hasn't experienced two consecutive years of decline. There's really no need to be so tense right now. 125,000 to 200,000? Fine, let's just stay alive and see what happens in 2026. Don't let the current noise mess with your mindset.

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BrokeBeans

· 13h ago

BlackRock reducing holdings is just reducing holdings; when institutions cut losses, we should instead jump in. The historical cycle is right here.

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UncleLiquidation

· 13h ago

BlackRock's reduction caught you off guard? Buddy, this is the standard move for institutions to cut leeks; the real chips are still coming.

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StablecoinArbitrageur

· 13h ago

actually if you run the numbers on iborr correlation vs btc drawdown cycles, the 126% rebound thesis kinda falls apart when you factor in basis point spreads across cex/dex liquidity pools. but yeah, blackrock's tactical rebalance is textbook risk management, not a bearish signal per se.

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GateUser-e51e87c7

· 13h ago

BlackRock reduces holdings by 200 million USD. This move is indeed shocking, but think about it—this is just the usual operation of institutions cutting leeks. Don't be scared. The historical cycle is still there. Even after two years of continuous decline, it hasn't happened before. This time, the real opportunity is around December 2026, with prices between 125,000 and 200,000. Honestly, those who panic now are often the ones getting trapped in the end. Ignoring the noise is the key to winning. This move by BlackRock is just profit-taking. There's no need to interpret it as a bearish signal; it's a different matter. The real opportunity is often hidden in the most chaotic times. Now is the moment to test your mindset.

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