Global Copper Supply Dynamics: 2024 Production Leaders and Market Outlook

The copper market faced a critical juncture in 2024 as supply concerns intensified across the world’s leading mining regions. With aging infrastructure at established copper operations and limited new capacity coming online, the mining industry confronted mounting pressure to meet escalating demand driven by the global energy transition. This supply-demand imbalance pushed copper prices to historic levels—the red metal surpassed $5 per pound for the first time in May 2024, reflecting market tightness despite mixed macroeconomic signals.

According to the latest US Geological Survey data, global copper production reached 23 million metric tons (MT) in 2024. However, demand from the clean energy sector remains constrained, particularly as China—traditionally the world’s largest copper consumer—grapples with economic headwinds. Looking ahead, industry forecasts predict the copper market will shift into supply deficits within the coming years, a development expected to provide sustained upward pressure on prices and support mining company profitability.

Understanding the World’s Leading Copper-Producing Nations

A closer examination of production by country reveals how concentrated copper supply has become. Mining output figures have been supplemented with data from Mining Data Online (MDO).

Chile: The Undisputed Market Leader

Chile maintained its position as the globe’s largest copper-producing nation in 2024, generating 5.3 million metric tons—representing approximately 23 percent of worldwide output. The country hosts operations from major global miners including state-owned Codelco, Anglo American, Glencore, and Antofagasta. Most notably, BHP’s Escondida mine—the planet’s largest copper operation—generated around 1.13 million MT from BHP’s 57.5 percent stake in 2024. Rio Tinto holds 30 percent ownership, with Jeco maintaining the remainder. Encouragingly, Chilean copper production is projected to rebound substantially, reaching an estimated 6 million MT in 2025 as new mining projects ramp up operations.

The Democratic Republic of Congo: Rapid Ascent

The DRC has emerged as the second-largest producer, delivering 3.3 million metric tons in 2024 and capturing over 11 percent of global supply. This output reflected a marked increase from 2.93 million MT the previous year. A primary growth driver has been Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula project (a joint venture with Zijin Mining Group), which achieved commercial production in August 2024. The operation yielded 437,061 MT of copper in 2024, up from 393,551 MT in 2023. Ivanhoe has guided for further expansion, targeting 520,000-580,000 MT in 2025.

South American Powerhouses: Peru and Beyond

Peru contributed 2.6 million metric tons in 2024, though this represented a decline of 160,000 MT from 2023. Production headwinds at Freeport McMoRan’s Cerro Verde—Peru’s largest mine—were partly responsible, as the operation experienced a 3.7 percent production decrease. Cerro Verde had produced 1.94 million MT of copper concentrate in 2023. Additional Peruvian operations include Anglo American’s Quellaveco mine and Southern Copper’s Tia Maria project. Most Peruvian copper exports flow to China and Japan, with secondary shipments reaching South Korea and Germany.

China: Refined Copper Dominance

China’s primary mine output totaled 1.8 million metric tons in 2024, a marginal decline from 1.82 million MT in 2023 and reflecting a longer-term production trend downward from a 2021 peak of 1.91 million MT. However, China’s dominance in refined copper production is undeniable—the nation processed 12 million MT of refined copper in 2024, accounting for over 44 percent of global refinery output and six times Chile’s refined copper production. China also holds the world’s largest copper reserves at 190 million MT. Zijin Mining Group, a leading Chinese metals producer, operates the Qulong copper-molybdenum-silver-gold mine in Tibet. After acquiring a 50.1 percent stake in 2024, the company is consolidating toward full ownership. The Qulong mine, now China’s largest, produced an estimated 366 million pounds of copper in 2024, up from 340 million pounds in 2023.

Emerging Producers: Indonesia and New Rankings

Indonesia surpassed both the United States and Russia in 2024 to claim the fifth position, producing 1.1 million metric tons. This marked a significant jump from 907,000 MT in 2023 and 731,000 MT in 2021. Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg complex remains the nation’s flagship operation, producing 1.66 billion pounds in 2023. PT Amman Mineral’s Batu Hijau mine, meanwhile, ramped production substantially—forecast to reach 1.84 billion pounds in 2024 (compared to 542 million pounds in 2023) as it processes higher-grade ore from Phase 7. Notably, Amman Minerals commissioned a new smelting facility in mid-2024 with capacity to process 900,000 MT of copper concentrate annually, yielding 222,000 MT of copper cathodes and 830,000 MT of sulfuric acid.

United States: Steady but Declining

The United States produced 1.1 million metric tons in 2024, a marginal 30,000 MT drop from 2023 but substantially lower than the 1.23 million MT achieved in 2022. Arizona dominates domestic supply, accounting for 70 percent of national output, with Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico contributing significant volumes. Just 17 mines generate 99 percent of US copper production. Freeport McMoRan’s Morenci mine in Arizona—operated as a joint venture with Sumitomo—stands as the nation’s largest, producing 700 million pounds in 2024 with proven and probable reserves of 12.63 million pounds. Freeport McMoRan’s Safford and Sierrita operations added 249 million MT and 165 million MT respectively.

Expanding Supply: Russia and Kazakhstan

Russia produced 930,000 metric tons in 2024, an increase from 890,000 MT in 2023, bolstered by ramp-up activity at Udokan Copper’s Siberian Udokan mine (Phase 1). Despite multiple fires at year-end 2023, operations proceeded without production impact, with the mine expected to deliver 135,000 MT in 2024 and scale to 450,000 MT once Phase 2 launches in 2028.

Kazakhstan entered the top 10 in 2024 with 740,000 metric tons, displacing Mexico and Zambia despite flat year-over-year performance. The nation has posted substantial growth relative to recent history—producing just 510,000 MT in 2021—and aims higher. A National Development Plan released in February 2024 targets 40 percent growth in mineral production by 2029, supported by enhanced exploration and tax incentives. KAZ Minerals’ Aktogay mine produced 228,800 MT in 2024, down slightly from 252,400 MT in 2023.

Australia and Mexico: Stable Contributors

Australia generated 800,000 metric tons in 2024, edging up from 778,000 MT in 2023. BHP’s Olympic Dam mine in South Australia achieved a 10-year production high of 216,000 MT. Glencore’s Mount Isa complex in Queensland, historically one of Australia’s leading producers, faces closure in the second half of 2025. Despite modest output, Australia ranks second in global copper reserves at 100 million MT, trailing only China’s 190 million MT and tied with Peru.

Mexico rounded out the top 10 with 700,000 metric tons in 2024, virtually flat compared to 2023. Grupo Mexico’s Buenavista del Cobre mine in Sonora remains the nation’s largest, producing 725 million pounds of copper concentrate and 193 million pounds of copper cathode in 2023. Grupo Mexico’s La Caridad mine, the country’s second-largest, contributed 387,000 MT of copper concentrate and 51 million pounds of copper cathode the same year.

Market Implications and Investment Outlook

The 2024 production snapshot underscores a concentrated supply base facing structural challenges. As new capacity slowly materializes and aging operations grapple with maintenance pressures, the supply-demand equation continues tightening. For investors tracking copper exposure, understanding which countries and mining operators drive global supply remains essential for evaluating long-term market dynamics and company performance in the commodity cycle ahead.