## When is the next bull run coming? What you need to know about Bitcoin cycles

Bitcoin has just hit new all-time highs, reaching **$87,050 USD** by the end of 2024, surpassing the previous historical maximum. With the market at record highs and a bullish sentiment of 50%, many are asking: when is the next bull cycle? The answer lies in understanding the patterns that have driven each historic Bitcoin rally since 2009.

### The current cycle: 2024-2025 under new dynamics

The current Bitcoin rally is characterized by unprecedented factors. Since the approval of spot ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has experienced massive institutional inflows exceeding $4.5 billion. This movement allowed the price to jump from $40,000 to highs of $87,000 in less than a year—a 130% gain.

The fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024 created additional supply compression, reducing mining rewards once again. Historically, each halving has preceded explosive price increases: the 2012 halving generated gains of 5,200%, the 2016 halving 315%, and the 2020 halving 230%.

But there’s a new factor changing the game: **institutional integration**. Companies like MicroStrategy have accumulated thousands of BTC in 2024, further reducing the available supply in open markets. Governments are also moving—Bhutan holds over 13,000 BTC, while El Salvador maintains its holdings with approximately 5,875 BTC.

### Tracking patterns: Bullish streaks that defined Bitcoin

**2013: The first major takeoff**

Bitcoin jumped from $145 in May to $1,200 in December—an increase of 730%. This cycle was driven by massive media coverage and the Cyprus banking crisis, which pushed investors toward alternative assets. However, the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 caused a 75% drop, showing the fragility of early infrastructure.

**2017: The retail bubble**

The ICO boom drove Bitcoin from $1,000 to nearly $20,000—a 1,900% increase. Daily trading volume soared from $200 million to $15 billion. But Chinese regulation banning ICOs and exchanges caused a brutal correction of 84%, demonstrating how policy can quickly reverse bullish movements.

**2020-2021: The "digital gold" narrative**

The pandemic and massive fiscal stimuli repositioned Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. The price surged from $8,000 to $64,000—a 700% increase. Institutional inflows exceeded $10 billion. Publicly traded companies, starting with MicroStrategy, accumulated over 125,000 BTC among them.

### Technical indicators predicting the next move

Knowing when to recognize a bullish streak requires monitoring three pillars:

**Technical signals**: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 and the crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages signal momentum shifts. In the current 2024-25 rally, both signals are active.

**On-chain data**: Stablecoin inflows to exchanges explode when investors prepare to buy. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges fell significantly in 2024, indicating institutional accumulation. Wallet transaction volume also increased, showing movement of money into long-term positions.

**Macroeconomic factors**: Favorable regulatory policies, ETF approvals, and administration changes can open or close institutional doors. The pro-crypto era that began in 2024 with SEC approval of spot ETFs fundamentally changed market access.

### What to expect in upcoming bull cycles

**Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset**

The 2024 Bitcoin Law proposal suggests the U.S. could acquire up to 1 million BTC in five years. If enacted, this would create unprecedented global demand, with other nations likely following suit. Bhutan and El Salvador have already demonstrated that this is possible. Government recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve would be the biggest catalyst ever seen.

**New financial products**

Spot ETFs were just the beginning. Mutual funds, structured derivatives, and fixed-income products based on Bitcoin are arriving. Each new financial vehicle attracts a new category of investors who cannot operate directly.

**Technological updates opening possibilities**

The possible reintroduction of OP_CAT could transform Bitcoin from a store of value into a network for application settlements. If approved, Bitcoin could process thousands of transactions per second via Layer-2 solutions, competing with Ethereum in DeFi. This would multiply use cases and demand drivers.

**Future halvings and controlled scarcity**

The fixed maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoin guarantees perpetual scarcity. With each halving every four years, the new supply inflation halves. In upcoming halving cycles (2028, 2032), scarcity could become even more pronounced, especially if governments actively buy.

### How to prepare for the next rally

1. **Understand the fundamentals**: Read Bitcoin’s whitepaper and study how the technology works. Informed investors make better decisions.

2. **Create a clear strategy**: Decide if you seek short-term gains or long-term growth. Set realistic financial goals and a risk tolerance you can sustain.

3. **Choose a secure platform**: Look for exchanges with two-factor authentication, cold storage, and regular security audits. Reliable platforms allow you to operate without custody worries.

4. **Diversify your portfolio**: Bitcoin is important, but a balanced portfolio includes other cryptocurrencies and traditional assets. Diversification reduces volatility.

5. **Secure your investments**: For long-term positions, use hardware wallets offline. For active trading, enable all security layers available on your platform.

6. **Stay informed**: Follow trusted news sources, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic changes. The crypto market reacts quickly to new news.

7. **Avoid emotional decisions**: Bitcoin’s volatility can lead to FOMO or panic. Use stop-loss orders and follow your plan instead of reacting emotionally to daily movements.

8. **Engage with the community**: Join forums, webinars, and conferences to deepen your understanding and connect with other investors.

### The cycle continues: From speculation to infrastructure

Each Bitcoin bull run has left scars but also strengthened the market. The crashes of 2014, 2018, and 2022 led to better infrastructure, clearer regulation, and more sophisticated participants. The current rally differs because it is accompanied by institutional approvals, not pure speculation.

With future halvings, potential government purchases, technological updates, and a steady flow of new institutional investors, Bitcoin is entering a new phase of its history. The next bull cycle will not be just about price—it will be about Bitcoin’s integration into the global financial system.

**To anticipate when the next rally will happen**: watch for halving events (every four years), new ETF approvals, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic sentiment. Bitcoin always comes back, and bull streaks continue, but the next one will be different—bigger, more institutionalized, and potentially more transformative than any before.