WLFI drops another 60%. Can it rebound after launching in September? The market is divided into two camps.

WLFI (World Liberty Financial) has fallen from its pre-trading high of $0.55 to $0.14, a shrinkage of nearly 75%. This crypto project associated with the Trump family was set to go live on September 1, but market opinions on its prospects have already shown clear divergence.

The “Half” Price: Early Investors’ Arbitrage Window Closes

According to the latest data, WLFI is currently trading around $0.14, with a 24-hour change of +2.43%, and a fully diluted market cap of approximately $14.29 billion. Compared to its peak market cap of $55 billion during pre-trading, the reduction is astonishing.

However, even with the price halved again, the gains for first and second-round public participants remain quite substantial. Based on subscription prices of $0.015 and $0.05, these early supporters still see unrealized gains of over 14 times. But the key point is—only 20% of the tokens are unlocked at launch, with the remaining 80% unlocking scheme subject to community governance votes.

Scenario 1: Early Participants Cash Out Strategically, Potential “Big Drop” on Launch Day

Many market participants have already realized this: WLFI has become too expensive. Despite retreating from the $0.55 high, the $0.14 price still imposes significant cost pressure on latecomers.

Early investors are hedging through contract markets. Data shows that the total WLFI contract holdings across the network have reached 127.2 million tokens, worth about $279 million. Top platforms hold 53.77% of WLFI contracts, totaling over $150 million. This indicates that many participants have already locked in their expected gains via derivatives markets.

More notably, project teams and institutional investors may also hedge similarly. Given the strong profit motives demonstrated by the Trump family in previous projects (reportedly earning at least $350 million from TRUMP tokens), WLFI’s team has already earned $57.35 million from token sales. If the core team chooses to lock in profits early via derivatives, these institutional players may have little motivation to push prices higher after launch.

Conversely, retail investors face a completely unequal cost structure—they bought at much higher prices than public sale participants, drastically reducing their willingness to buy in. Coupled with the liquidity pressure from only 20% initial unlock, the probability of WLFI experiencing a sharp decline on its first day is quite high.

Scenario 2: Scarcity of Liquidity Drives Up Prices, WLFI Might Replicate TRUMP’s Launch Trajectory

From another perspective, the pre-trading price is more a result of market sentiment and market maker manipulation, with limited relation to the project itself. Currently, the WLFI derivatives market shows large long positions, with a 24-hour long liquidation amount of $2.16 million and short liquidation of $1.045 million, indicating a potential long squeeze at any moment.

More importantly, WLFI employs a unique token release mechanism—only 500 million tokens are initially in circulation out of a total supply of 10 billion—meaning the actual circulating market cap at launch could be around $700 million. This scarcity of supply previously caused dramatic effects during TRUMP’s launch: its first-day market cap quickly surpassed $10 billion as the market re-evaluated its token structure, widely believing the initial pricing was significantly undervalued.

WLFI also benefits from Trump’s endorsement, and it’s not just a meme coin—it carries real ecosystem functions like USD1 stablecoin. Before and after launch, Trump is highly likely to express support via social media, hinting at “buy” signals. These uncertainties and anticipations provide ample room for price imagination. The project team understands the logic that “pumping the price is the best marketing”—only by pushing the price higher can they convert crypto traffic into real ecosystem capacity.

One Week Before Launch: Where Is the Market’s Choice?

There is one week left before WLFI officially goes live. The market has already made a preliminary judgment—falling from $0.55 to $0.14 reflects investors’ reassessment of valuation. But what will happen at launch? It depends not only on fundamentals but also on liquidity supply, early participant sentiment, and Trump’s attitude.

Whatever the scenario, WLFI has become an interesting case study for observing the crypto market—it will reveal the true relationship between market liquidity, arbitrage opportunities, and ecosystem value in the “celebrity coin” era.