#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the personnel changes at Paradigm reminded me of the events I've witnessed in the crypto market over the years. Charlie Noyes joined eight years ago, supporting institutions from the ground up. Now he has chosen to step down as GP and become an observer on the board—this actually reflects a phenomenon: the investment logic of large institutions is changing, and the prediction market sector is also evolving.

I've stepped into many pitfalls before, and the deepest lesson is chasing after the hot spots of big institutions. Seemingly glamorous funding news and endorsements from influential figures often turn out to be preludes to cutting leeks. Prediction markets like Polymarket look very attractive, but you need to think clearly—who is truly making money? Is it the deeply involved, rule-understanding institutions, or retail investors who follow the trend after entering?

Changes in senior management of institutions may seem insignificant, but they often signal a shift in direction. Sometimes they are quietly retreating, while the market is going crazy in. That’s why my current principle is: watch what institutions do, and pay more attention to when they reduce holdings or change personnel. Those large funding rounds and personnel changes are precisely the best early warning signs of risk.

To survive long on the chain, the core is to learn to recognize people and situations. Don’t be blinded by hot trends.