2025-12-27 12:20:14

#美联储回购协议计划 The Federal Reserve's new round of liquidity injection has just signaled, and the market reaction has already been quite evident.

Let's look at the scale first—by 2025, a total of over 120 billion will be injected, with 2.5 billion just last night into overnight repos, of which 85.5% of the collateral is MBS. Additionally, the interest rate has been cut three times this year (a total of 75 basis points), and the federal funds rate is now stuck in the 3.5%-3.75% range.

The underlying logic is actually laying the groundwork for a loose monetary policy in 2026. Institutions predict that there will be another 2-3 rate cuts next year, with a total reduction of 50-75 basis points. The Trump administration is also pushing for a "high liquidity" target, and this direction seems very certain.

The market has already picked up on the signals. On the day of the rate cut announcement in December, $BTC surged immediately, and $ZEC saw its largest increase this month at 17.99%. Even the US stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 1%, while the US dollar index hit a new low for the month.

But don't be too optimistic; risks are also hidden in the details—core PCE remains at 2.9%, still above the Fed's target, and there are 7 members within the Fed opposing further rate cuts in 2026, indicating significant policy disagreements, and there could be considerable volatility ahead.

In trading, keep an eye on a few things: whether the weekly repo scale will continue to exceed 2.5 billion, and how the FOMC dot plot will look in January. Track volume changes with small positions, and avoid blindly chasing highs. The durability of this liquidity release will depend on how the policy makers play their cards.

BTC0,55%

ZEC15,3%

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TradFiRefugee

· 11h ago

The Fed's recent actions are indeed injecting blood into the crypto market, but I'm still waiting for the January dot plot, which will be the true guiding beacon. --- 120 billion in funding sounds like a lot, but spread across the entire market, this small amount of liquidity is hardly enough. The key still depends on how Trump’s side cooperates. --- ZEC up 17.99%? Why didn't I catch it? Another missed opportunity. --- Core PCE has only dropped to 2.9%, and there are still 7 members within the Federal Reserve opposing further easing. This risk point is indeed quite concerning. --- Don't be fooled by $BTC's short-term gains. My advice is to take small positions to test the waters, and wait for the FOMC to see what happens next. --- How long this liquidity can last is really uncertain; it all depends on how the policy makers decide to act.

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GweiTooHigh

· 11h ago

120 billion liquidity injection, BTC is about to take off again haha --- Core PCE is still 2.9%. How long this rate cut can last is really uncertain --- 7 dissenters inside the Federal Reserve? Indicates quite a big disagreement, hard to predict what will happen next --- Follow the volume with small positions, don't blindly chase highs. That hits hard --- ZEC up 17.99%, don't chase at the high points everyone --- Trump wants high liquidity, which is definitely a clear signal. Let's see how the FOMC implements it later --- How long can the weekly 2.5 billion buyback last? That's the key point, a bottleneck --- The Dow only rose a little over 1%, but the crypto market is excited, showing some divergence --- MBS accounts for 85.5%, this allocation is quite interesting

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AirdropChaser