Recently, I have been frequently asked two types of questions in industry discussion groups: Can Bitcoin break through 70,000 this week? Is now the time to buy the dip or to exit? Honestly, most people asking these questions haven't grasped the fundamental laws governing the crypto market.

I have been in this field for 8 years and have witnessed three complete bull and bear cycles. To be responsible, Bitcoin's long-term trend has never depended on candlestick charts. Those who constantly watch the 4-hour cycle for trading signals are either "pseudo analysts" who make a living by cutting leeks, or retail investors completely swayed by market sentiment.

Why do I say this? Because the true variables influencing Bitcoin's future are hidden within policy undercurrents. Understanding these two lines of insight can save you three years of detours.

My core judgment is this: Bitcoin is entering a "compliance screening period." Short-term price fluctuations are determined by the tightening and loosening of policies in Europe and America, but the long-term value support depends on the formation of global regulatory consensus.

Some may ask, isn't cryptocurrency supposed to be decentralized? Why bring up policies? This argument was valid five years ago, but it’s outdated now. As traditional financial giants like Grayscale and BlackRock enter the market to compete, and more countries introduce regulatory frameworks for crypto assets, Bitcoin is no longer just a toy within the circle; it has become a new species that must be integrated into the global financial system.

Looking at the US spot Bitcoin ETF. When the ETF was approved last year, the market rejoiced for three days before starting to decline. Many people complained, saying "good news is already priced in as bad news." But I said in the community at the time, this was just the beginning. The true significance of ETF approval is that Bitcoin now has a fully compliant mainstream investment channel for the first time. However, compared to the approval event itself, what truly determines the long-term trend is the subsequent capital flow and the evolution of institutional holdings. This is a longer-cycle variable and a key factor in whether Bitcoin can become a standard asset allocation item.