Recently, several signals have stacked up together, which is indeed a bit unsettling. Vitalik announced that Ethereum will "surprise everyone," and shortly after, the Bank of Japan declared an end to its thirty-year ultra-low interest rate era. Lithuania issued a final warning to crypto companies, and even the Bitcoin Genesis Wallet, dormant for 16 years, showed signs of movement. This is not coincidence; the market is sending signals.

On a broader scale, gold prices are soaring, the Federal Reserve's candidate battles are intensifying, and global liquidity faces a turning point... Events that seem unrelated are actually pointing in the same direction: a major upheaval is coming. Layer2 solutions and zero-knowledge proofs are accelerating iterations, with new ecosystem applications emerging constantly. Meanwhile, the iron fist of regulation and macro tightening pressures have never eased.

This is the current core contradiction—technological breakthroughs are explosive, yet the uncertainty in fundamentals is unprecedentedly high. Everyone can see the potential, but no one can tell whether the next move will be an opportunity or a trap.

Lithuania's incident serves as a stark reminder: compliance is no longer a bonus but the bottom line for survival. If you truly want to live long, hiding from regulation is no longer an option. The Bank of Japan's shift is another warning— the entire world has relied on thirty years of cheap money, and that tide is truly turning. Rising funding costs and declining risk appetite will inevitably lead to increased volatility in the crypto market.

How should one allocate positions? Mental preparation must be solid. Relying on old thinking in this environment is especially dangerous. The questions to consider are: can the Ethereum ecosystem withstand macro headwinds? Will tighter regulation attract more institutional funds? Are these stress tests the final hurdle before a bull market, or the beginning of another turning point?

Everyone's answer may differ, but one thing is certain—the era of lying flat is over.