#比特币与黄金战争 Is the short-term rebound in the crypto market a trap? Rational view on this window

From a macro perspective, there have been no new variables recently to break the market equilibrium. The probability of a rate hike in Japan in January is low, and there are no clear signals yet regarding the Fed's rate cut pace.

A policy vacuum period has arrived. On one hand, there is no sustained negative selling pressure, and on the other hand, there is a lack of genuine strong stimuli to push the market trend. This "bull-bear vacuum period" sounds quite dangerous, but conversely, it provides the market with room for technical correction.

Since the decline in October, the adjustment has lasted nearly two months. Looking at sentiment, timing, and K-line structure, all dimensions are gradually approaching the critical point for a staged rebound.

There is an important time node here—after the end of the Christmas holidays in Europe and America, market liquidity will gradually return, and funds will become active again, usually triggering a wave of recovery.

But I want to emphasize: this is only a short-term rebound window, not a signal of trend reversal. For most people, the January market movement is more likely an opportunity to reassess holdings, reduce leverage risks, and even consider exiting the market.

The easiest mistake to make is, as the market rises, to start fantasizing that "the bull market is back." But when the macro fundamentals haven't improved substantially, such excessive optimism often comes with the heaviest costs.

The market's opportunity is to correct strategies, not to ignite another round of frenzy. Distinguish between a rebound and a trend, see through the structure, and don't mistake the "escape window" for a "takeoff signal"—this is the most rational attitude at this stage.