2025-12-27 15:23:37

This afternoon at 4 PM, the 28.5 billion scale options settlement (BTC and ETH) took place. Such a level of settlement indeed has a significant impact on market sentiment, and many are now feeling anxious—selling out fears of continued price increase, holding on fears of being trapped, and leveraging further increases the risk sharply. Instead of overthinking, it's better to learn how to see through the true signals of the market.

There are two main signals to watch closely. First is the trading volume performance one hour before settlement. If there is a sudden surge in volume accompanied by clear directional fluctuations, and a large number of stop-loss orders are triggered consecutively, it is likely that institutions are attempting to induce a short squeeze or a long squeeze, and retail investors are easily caught in the trap. Conversely, if the trading volume remains steady and fluctuations are mild, it indicates that market sentiment is still restrained, and the risk at this time is relatively more controllable.

Second is the performance around the 100,000 price level. It is the main strike price for this bullish options settlement and also a key battleground for both bulls and bears. If the price falls below 100,000 and cannot recover, it is a clear signal that bears are in control, and downward pressure may continue. Conversely, if the price holds above 100,000 or even stabilizes above 110,000, bulls still have room to push further.

As for actual trading strategies, here are three suggestions. First, control your position size; even if you are optimistic about the market, do not exceed 30%, as volatility during settlement periods often exceeds most people's expectations. Second, beginners should avoid trading for now, as market sentiment is very chaotic, and blind trading will only lead to pitfalls. It’s better to wait until the settlement is completed and the trend becomes clearer before considering entering the market. Third, if you have some experience, you can consider light hedging—for example, if you hold BTC, buy small amounts of put options as insurance. The cost is low, but the defensive effect is good.

The key to this settlement is mindset. Do not be scared by short-term fluctuations; using signals and strategies to guide decisions is the real key.

BTC0,35%

ETH0,26%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

LongTermDreamer

· 18h ago

2.85 billion settlement? To be honest, I'm a bit scared, but from a three-year cycle perspective, we're still in the bottom range. Holding BTC means keeping a steady mindset. Short-term fluctuations are nothing; I definitely won't move. The 100,000 mark is really crucial. If we break it, we'll continue to face pressure; if we hold, there's still hope. Keep it simple and straightforward. Newbies really shouldn't make reckless moves. I blindly operated and stepped into many pits three years ago. Now I understand how important it is to control position sizes. Light positions for hedging are indeed good, and the cost isn't high. Just buy some peace of mind, haha. Going bankrupt and losing everything is also part of gaining experience. We're still young. Looking back three years later, everything now will seem insignificant. One hour before settlement, you must watch the trading volume. This signal is the least likely to deceive. I've seen many institutions induce short squeezes.

View OriginalReply0

New_Ser_Ngmi

· 18h ago

Another 28.5 billion drama, you have to keep an eye on the key level of 100,000 Having a 30% position is really the hard rule; even if you're optimistic, you have to hold back If the 100,000 level doesn't break, it still feels like there's a chance; bulls shouldn't give up so quickly The biggest risk in trading volume is a sudden surge; at that time, retail investors are really vulnerable to being harvested Light position hedging is indeed reliable; buying some insurance doesn't hurt Newcomers should still avoid it now; the market is too chaotic Wait for the trend to clarify before taking action; there will always be opportunities The key is still mindset; don't be scared out by fluctuations, and you've already won half the battle

View OriginalReply0

DeFi_Dad_Jokes

· 18h ago

Bro, this analysis is spot on. The 28.5 billion settlement—retail investors like us are just destined to be harvested. The 100,000 price level is truly a life-and-death line. If we can't hold it, just wait to be smashed. I just want to ask, do you still have the courage to leverage up now? I was beaten down by the previous few waves. Unusual volume spike + stop-loss orders triggered repeatedly—I've seen too many times where this combo turns retail investors into chopped leeks. Having 30% of your position is really a reliable suggestion, but unfortunately, greedy people never listen. Newbies really shouldn't get involved now. The market right now is like a casino; it's safest to lie flat before the trend becomes clear. Light position hedging—I've got to remember this trick. It's much smarter than going all-in. Are institutions trying to trap shorts or longs? They don't even need to try; we're just sending them money automatically. This mentality is the hardest to get past. When short-term volatility hits, panic sets in immediately.

View OriginalReply0

LucidSleepwalker

· 19h ago

A 28.5 billion market, to put it simply, it's about who is quick and ruthless. The 100,000 mark must be watched closely; if it's broken, get ready to cut losses. When trading volume increases, I get scared, afraid of being weeded out. Newbies really shouldn't play; I'm part of the group that paid tuition fees. Light position hedging is still somewhat interesting, much better than going naked. Mindset is easy to talk about, but when it comes to settlement time, everyone is useless. Forget it, better to observe first, and wait until the storm passes before acting.

View OriginalReply0

ProofOfNothing

· 19h ago

285 billion. This time, it's really about who can hold their composure. I bet 100,000 that this critical level will be repeatedly tested. But honestly, I've seen too many cases of volume spikes and baiting orders. Whether you get caught or not, it's still a risk. Just hold your position and don't be greedy. Risk always comes faster than reward. If 100,000 breaks, wait for a rebound. That's the real test. Newbies really shouldn't act recklessly. This is the easiest time to get wiped out. Light positions and hedging are indeed reliable. Just consider it as buying some psychological reassurance. Volatility beyond expectations is inevitable. Being mentally prepared is the most important. Watch how the institutions handle this wave; retail investors can only follow the trend. Moderate trading volume indicates we're not at the crazy point yet, for now, it's still under control. Bull and bear are definitely fighting hard at the 100,000 level. If it breaks, it's game over.

View OriginalReply0