2025-12-27 16:20:55

The key nodes in the precious metals market are approaching. Currently, there are two support logic that are unlikely to change: First, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is locked at 84.9%, and subsequent actions may include stopping balance sheet reduction and even starting to expand the balance sheet next year, which is a long-term positive for precious metals; Second, there is no substantial progress expected in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in the short term. Although the geopolitical premium will not be released rapidly, it also will not become a suppressive factor.

From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands for precious metals are gradually narrowing, and the moment to choose a direction for the price is near. Probabilistically, an upward breakout is more likely. Regarding silver, inventory data is beginning to tighten again, and the tight spot market situation may reappear.

For holders, the key is to keep an eye on the expectation of rate cuts as the main theme. As long as this logic does not reverse, it is advisable to hold steadily and wait for the main upward wave to start. Hesitation is often the main reason for missing the best buying point.

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BearMarketBarber

· 12h ago

84.9% probability, in plain terms, means it's basically locked in; the Federal Reserve is really going to loosen monetary policy this time. The prelude to gold and silver taking off has already sounded; it all depends on who can hold out until that moment. --- The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that the market is choosing a direction. Is the probability of an upward breakout higher? Isn't this just technical analysis hinting that it's time to add to positions? Haha. --- Spot market is becoming tight again. Silver is just afraid of shortages; when there's a shortage, prices jump. I've been saying to stock up for a long time. --- Hold steadily, don't hesitate. This phrase hits many people's pain points. Someone always chickens out at the most critical moment, and then they can only regret it. --- As long as the geopolitical premium isn't suppressed, it means there's no risk warning, and that's the most important thing. --- Once the rate cut cycle reverses, precious metals might change direction, but from the current perspective, the probability of that happening isn't high enough yet. --- Honestly, it's not too late to get in at this point. It would be a shame to miss the main upward wave once it starts.

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SchroedingersFrontrun

· 12h ago

84.9% probability, sounds like boosting your confidence, I believe it anyway, keep holding on.

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MidnightTrader

· 12h ago

The Bollinger Bands have indeed narrowed, but I'm more concerned about the silver inventory... I heard it's getting tight again? If this wave can really break through, I'm ready to jump in.

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ColdWalletAnxiety

· 12h ago

I've been watching the Bollinger Bands narrowing, and I feel this move is indeed quite interesting. The 84.9% rate of rate cut lock-in is honestly a bit absolute, but as long as the direction is correct, that's what matters. The main thing is to watch the Federal Reserve's subsequent actions. The tight silver inventory is a real signal; the sense of tightness on the spot market is gradually returning. Holding steadily is well said; don't get washed out by short-term fluctuations all the time. That's the main reason for losing money. Whether this move can break through depends crucially on whether the rate cut logic reverses. If it reverses, everything starts over again.

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Rugman_Walking

· 12h ago

Damn, I've been watching the Bollinger Bands narrowing signal for a while, just waiting for it to choose a direction. With such a high probability of interest rate cuts, why not jump on board?

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fren.eth

· 12h ago

I’ve looked at the number 84.9% three times, and it feels a bit fake... Speaking of, silver inventory is tightening again. Is this really the case, or are we about to get chopped again... The expectation of interest rate cuts is a solid line, but it seems the probability of sudden geopolitical shifts hasn't been factored in? Just hold on to it, anyway, there's no running away, just afraid of a sudden black swan... I believe in the Bollinger Bands narrowing signal, but an upward breakout isn't necessarily guaranteed...

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AirdropBlackHole

· 12h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts is so steady, so what are you still hesitating about... Basically, it's waiting for the right opportunity. The tight silver inventory is indeed something to watch.

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