Recently, the crypto world has been flooded with news about negotiations from London. High-level trade officials from China and the US met, and Trump even specifically stated that "it should go very smoothly." As a result, Bitcoin immediately surged by 2%, and long positions in the futures market also flocked in, creating an atmosphere that felt like the arrival of a bull market.

But this wave of optimism seems a bit familiar. Remember the market rally in October 2025? At that time, the market was equally full of expectations, only to be followed by a catastrophic liquidation of 19.3 billion. Bitcoin plummeted 15% in a single day, and mainstream coins like Ethereum and SOL fell by more than 20%. A total of 1.67 million traders were liquidated, with long positions accounting for up to 85% of losses. Although history doesn't simply repeat itself, similar patterns tend to reappear time and again.

Looking back at past negotiation processes, it’s clear that such talks are never "settled in one shot." In April last year, the US Treasury Secretary described US-China trade negotiations as a "prolonged war," even though Trump said "an agreement will be reached soon." Do these statements sound familiar? The subsequent developments, however, were tariff escalations, which directly triggered widespread adjustments in the crypto market.

Regarding the specific topics of this negotiation, the focus is likely to be on the tug-of-war over rare earth export policies and technological restrictions. The Ministry of Commerce previously stated that China would approve rare earth export applications within the legal framework, while the US might lift some restrictions accordingly. There’s a chain worth noting here: rare earths are the foundational materials for chip production, and chips are the core components of mining machines and blockchain infrastructure. If negotiations lead to substantial easing of rare earth exports, short-term mining machine costs could be alleviated, providing positive support for hash rate stability and mining profitability.

However, before getting too excited, caution is still necessary. The complexity of trade negotiations far exceeds surface-level press releases. Behind every "very smooth" statement, there could be new variables lurking. The market doesn’t need fleeting optimism but concrete, implementable agreement terms. Currently, this wave of enthusiasm could easily turn into a trigger for the next round of risk release.