On-chain LIT remains strongly bullish, confident to rise above $4.1. Polymarket's bet on "valuation exceeding $4 billion after launch" probability slightly increases.

On December 29, according to HyperInsight monitoring, in the past 3 hours, the largest on-chain LIT long address (0xdaa) has set multiple take-profit orders in a “倒金字塔” (inverted pyramid) pattern between the $4.12 and $6 price range, with only about 0.67% of the position planned to be closed at the $4.12 level. This address previously established a 3x leveraged long position since the launch of the LIT pre-market contract on the 24th and has been adding to the position. Currently, the position size is approximately $3.12 million, with an average price of $3.82, and an unrealized loss of about $143,000 (4.66%). Meanwhile, the long and short forces on Hyperliquid are currently relatively balanced. Since the pre-market contract launch, 10 whales holding over $1 million have entered, with 5 on each side. Today, two new whales opened long positions. Regarding market sentiment, data from Polymarket shows that the probability of the contract predicting “Lighter listing one day later with FDV over $40 billion” has increased by about 9% in the past 24 hours, currently reaching 30%; the probability of FDV remaining above $30 billion has increased by about 10%, now at 52%. The current pre-market price of LIT is about $3.5, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $3.5 billion. According to previous news on the 27th, Lighter’s relevant person in charge (X:Pilla_eth) stated that the TGE and airdrop will take place in 2025, with the airdrop accounting for 25% of the total supply. It is estimated that each point of score corresponds to about 20.8 LIT tokens, which, at the current price, is worth approximately $72.8.