Ethereum has shown a poised stance at the beginning of the new year. Closing at $2974 on January 1st, it appears calm on the surface, but the technical indicators reveal hidden signals.

Let's first look at some key points on the chart. The $2990 level is the most important recent resistance; a breakout could see a rapid surge toward $3088. Conversely, $2963 acts as support. The current technical indicators are quite interesting—RSI hovers around a neutral 49.83, MACD remains in negative territory but is converging, and declining volume suggests the market is waiting for a clear direction. The Bollinger Bands are tightening significantly, which usually indicates an upcoming period of high volatility.

Fundamentally, Q4 saw a record deployment of 8.7 million smart contracts, the explosion of L2 ecosystems, the emergence of RWA projects, and DeFi's TVL stabilizing and rising again—all solid positive signs. The only downside is the continued outflow from institutional ETFs, indicating they still prefer Bitcoin for now.

What does on-chain data say? Whales are continuously buying, with frequent orders of 40,000 and 67,000 ETH. Exchange reserves are decreasing, and 70% of futures positions are long. All these point to a bullish outlook. However, caution is warranted—there's a $800 million liquidation line below $2900. A breakdown could trigger a chain reaction.

Here's an interesting comparison—ETH is currently severely undervalued relative to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio is around 0.034, near historical lows. Remember the peak during the 2021 bull market? It was 0.087. This means if the market shifts focus to ecosystem applications, Ethereum has about 150% room to catch up.

For investors, the $2900-$3000 range is a golden zone for building positions. Even if there's a short-term breakdown, the long-term view remains attractive. The target price is $3500-$4000, with a timeframe roughly in Q1 to Q2. Driving factors include Ethereum's own upgrades, L2 TVL surpassing $50 billion, and increased institutional allocation.

The strategy could be: buy 30% at $2900, 40% at $2800, and 30% at $2700, with a stop-loss at $2600. Once it breaks above $3000, consider adding to the position. The risk-reward ratio for this trade is quite favorable.