Crypto Daily ( 01.02 ): Institutional Holdings Diverge, Bitcoin's Weak Performance in Q4, Fed's Year-End Liquidity Operations Record-Breaking

1. Institutional Dynamics and Market Participants' Performance
A certain exchange achieved strong performance in 2025, with total trading volume reaching $34 trillion, user assets totaling $162.8 billion, and the total number of users surpassing 300 million. Compliance and security measures were improved, and the outlook for 2026 focuses on enterprise-level applications and growth driven by sovereign funds.
MicroStrategy's stock price declined for six consecutive months in 2025. Despite continuously increasing Bitcoin holdings (holding 672,497 BTC as of December 30, worth nearly $59.5 billion), its stock performance lagged the market, facing risks such as index exclusion and high volatility.

2. Bitcoin Market Performance and Cycle Analysis
Bitcoin's performance in Q4 2025 was weak, recording a -23.07% decline, making it the second-worst quarter on record and breaking historical seasonal patterns (the average Q4 return historically is 77.07%).
During the New Year's holiday in 2026, Bitcoin traded sideways with reduced volume, oscillating between $86,000 and $88,500. Technical support and resistance levels are clear, but the short-term trend is weak. Institutional fund outflows led to liquidity shortages.

3. Stablecoins and Reserve Asset Strategies
Tether continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings in 2025, purchasing 8,888 BTC on New Year's Eve, with total holdings exceeding 96,000 BTC, unrealized gains of $3.524 billion. Tether also holds 116 tons of gold, ranking among the top 30 largest gold holders worldwide. Tether's Bitcoin reserve address ranks fifth globally, and second among private enterprise treasuries, purchasing Bitcoin with 15% of quarterly profits to strengthen reserves.