Bitcoin faces resistance after five consecutive gains? The key cost line is the real test of a bull market

Question

【Crypto World】Bitcoin's recent market movement is quite interesting. After rising for five consecutive days, it broke through recent highs, setting the longest continuous upward record since October 2025. But honestly, it hasn't yet recovered to the cost basis of those holding for 6-12 months—how critical is this line? Analysts generally believe that only when this level is reclaimed can we truly confirm a shift in the bull market pattern. If it can't break through, then the downward trend after October 2025 remains valid, and the market will continue to fluctuate.The interesting part lies in the liquidity aspect. The stablecoin reserves of a major exchange are increasing, which theoretically indicates a weakening buying pressure. But on the other hand, the Sharpe ratio is declining, suggesting that the volatility of the rebound gains is worsening—that is, this rally is more about major players adjusting their positions rather than new external funds entering the market. Comparing these two signals, the market still feels a bit fragile.

MetaNomad · Accepted Answer

Five consecutive gains are not enough; we need to return to the old guys' cost basis to be meaningful. For now, it's just a virtual rise.

Stablecoin accumulation and Sharpe ratio dropping again—this is awkward; no new money is entering the market.

Until the cost basis level is broken, the bear market logic of October 2025 still remains the fallback.

The big players are just repositioning their holdings; retail investors are following suit.

If there's really a bull market, it will depend on the funding environment. Right now, these data are a bit frustrating.

NFTRegretter · Answer

Five consecutive gains are not enough; the key is to stay above the cost line of the seasoned investors for it to count.

What does the decline in the Sharpe ratio indicate... It means the big players are adjusting their positions, and retail investors' money hasn't come in yet.

With so much stablecoin accumulation, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a sudden dump one day.

ParanoiaKing · Answer

As long as the cost line isn't broken, it's all a fake rally. Is the top heavy selling off, or are retail investors taking the bait?

ChainProspector · Answer

A five-day rally is too early to get excited about; only when it returns to the cost line does it count.

The stablecoin buy-side exhaustion continues, and the Sharpe ratio is still falling, indicating that this wave of gains is just the market manipulators playing around—nothing really fresh is coming in.

Is it starting to cut the leeks again?

As long as the price doesn't break the cost line, the bull market is fake; continue to sideways trade.

Adjusting the top positions ≠ a real bull market; this still needs to be clearly understood.

Virtual is virtual, but there is still room for a rebound; don’t go all in.

The increase in stablecoin reserves is really a ridiculous signal—obviously rising but still hoarding USDT?

This is a typical "rising fiercely, but no one is following" market.

Don’t be fooled by the five-day gains; wait until it breaks the 6-12 month cost line before speaking.

With such weak funding, just keep watching the show.

HallucinationGrower · Answer

Five consecutive gains sound great, but as long as the cost line isn't broken, it's just false fire.

Top players are flipping positions, and retail investors are just following along—this is the usual routine.

Stablecoins are increasing, but the Sharpe ratio is declining... Basically, no one is truly entering the market; it's all institutions hyping themselves up.

The cost line is the true mirror—this rally is unreliable.

After five days of consecutive gains, still stuck in the same place? Then get ready to be further educated.

Market liquidity feels weak, and it seems the next trap has already been prepared.

LiquidityWitch · Answer

ngl, five green candles don't mean the ritual's complete... that cost line is basically the summoning circle, break it or we're just LARPing another bounce. the stablecoin reserves creeping up while sharpe ratios tank? that's literally whales shuffling deck chairs on the titanic, not fresh blood entering the transmutation chamber. weak sauce energy ngl.

RatioHunter · Answer

As long as the cost line is not broken, the rebound is just a false signal. Is this time really different?

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The top is repositioning their holdings, retail investors are still following the trend, which is a bit ironic...

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Five consecutive gains look satisfying, but stablecoins are piling up. This signal is too obvious.

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What does a declining Sharpe ratio indicate? It means the rise is虚, with no real support.

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In my opinion, if the cost line isn't broken, don't hype a bull market. It's still early.

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The market liquidity is so虚, and there will be continued volatility. Whoever wants to buy the dip, go ahead.

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Wait, wait, wait. Is the increase in stablecoin reserves indicating someone is preparing to dump?

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The rebalancing at the top and new funds entering the market are completely different things. Who is the top trying to cut out this time?

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Is the bull market pattern changing? I think we need to see more; right now, it's too unstable.

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This rebound is average at best, looks like old players are just shaking out weak hands.

Frontrunner · Answer

Five consecutive gains are just a hype; it has to return to the cost line to be meaningful. Right now, it's just feeling虚得慌.

liquiditea_sipper · Answer

Is the five consecutive increases truly a rise or just a manipulation to shake out traders? We'll know once it breaks the cost line.

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Stablecoins are increasing, Sharpe ratio is decreasing... Isn't this just the head's self-satisfaction? Retail investors are being trapped in the rhythm.

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To put it simply, this is just a false rebound. Without new money entering, who truly believes this is a bull market?

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The cost line is the touchstone. If it can't break above, it will continue to fluctuate. This logical cycle is complete.

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Interesting? I find it a bit uncertain. The disconnect between capital flow and the trend isn't a good sign.

ApeWithNoFear · Answer

The cost line is not broken, it feels like a fake rally, just the top players hyping themselves up.

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Stablecoin reserves are actually increasing? This just means retail investors haven't entered the market yet, it's a bit hard to hold.

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Five consecutive rises look grand, but it's actually just the big players manipulating, and the declining Sharpe ratio says it all.

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If you can't break the cost line, you have to continue oscillating; this rebound might just end like this.

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With such weak funding, a breakout is probably a low-probability event.

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Top players adjusting positions vs new funds entering, it's clear that the former dominates now, no wonder it feels fake.

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Five days of continuous rise and everyone gets excited, but we should wait until it truly stabilizes above the cost line.

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The increase in stablecoins is the biggest signal—people are just waiting on the sidelines.

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The detail of the Sharpe ratio decline hits the mark; it feels like this rebound is just a false fire.

Bitcoin faces resistance after five consecutive gains? The key cost line is the real test of a bull market

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