Recently, I carefully examined the latest statements from a Federal Reserve official, and there was indeed a lot of information. This colleague straightforwardly stated that the current interest rate environment has "obvious restrictive characteristics," which are already dragging down economic growth, and even hinted at a potential cut of over 100 basis points by 2026. This stance is clearly not aligned with some other officials who lean towards a more dovish approach.

What does this reflect? The consensus within the Federal Reserve is not that solid, and there are still many uncertainties regarding policy direction. In the coming weeks, employment-related data (such as ADP figures and non-farm payrolls) will become the true "referee." If employment data remains strong, the pace of rate cuts may slow down; conversely, if the data weakens, the voices supporting a "loose policy" will grow louder.

For the cryptocurrency market, this internal disagreement itself is a signal. In the short term, it will likely lead to more sensitive volatility, with any data fluctuations potentially triggering intense shocks. Be prepared psychologically. However, based on on-chain data (such as the activity level of large transactions and wallet address dynamics) combined with news analysis, the logic remains unchanged: what is the market waiting for? It’s waiting for the liquidity expectations to truly reach a "turning point."

As long as subsequent employment and inflation data open a window for the Fed to adjust its policies, the medium-term support for assets like Bitcoin will become evident. Once signs of loosening liquidity expectations appear, market movements are unlikely to be gentle.

My standard for judgment is to closely monitor data and policy signals, and this time is no exception. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but bigger opportunities are building up. Stay mentally prepared, and let’s look forward to the upcoming changes together.