Recently, this wave of market activity has brought Bitcoin back to that love-hate zone — $93,500.

Since rebounding from the low of $80,600 at the end of November, BTC has been oscillating between $86,200 and $93,500. Last week, it finally broke above $90,500, and this week it surged directly toward a multi-month resistance level. It looks fierce, but is this level really that critical?

Analyst Rekt Capital provides an answer: yes, it is very critical. $93,500 is not only the top of the weekly range but also a confluence resistance of the multi-week downtrend that has been forming since mid-October 2025. Even more importantly, it’s a macro resistance — over the past 12 months, Bitcoin’s weekly closing prices have never exceeded this level.

Such resistance levels in a four-year cycle can lock in the price for nearly three years. It sounds intimidating, but it doesn’t mean there’s no chance of a breakout — the next halving cycle (2028) is usually the window when such pressure levels are challenged.

Looking at it from another angle, if we are truly entering a bear market now, the price could break above $93,500 in the coming months to confirm a macro bottom, only to turn downward afterward. By then, it might take until around the 2028 halving to revisit this level.