This week's first major economic data is here. At 21:15 Beijing time, the US December ADP Employment Report will be released on schedule. How important is this "small non-farm" report? It serves as a precursor to the official non-farm employment report and can largely determine the Federal Reserve's next move.

First, let's see how the market currently views interest rate cuts. According to CME data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen to 18.3%, while the probability of holding rates steady has surged to 81.7%. In simple terms, employment performance has become the final card that will decide the Fed's fate.

The market expects this ADP report to show an increase of 47,000 private sector jobs, a significant rebound compared to November's negative growth (-32,000). On the surface, the labor market seems to be warming up, but there's a detail worth considering — the recent round of negative signals (weak employment data, lowered expectations for rate cuts) has already been gradually digested by the market. Currently, the market is at a delicate moment where those negative factors are "fully priced in."

What will happen tonight? The logic is quite straightforward: as long as the ADP report doesn't show a surprise large decline, investors' risk appetite may quickly rebound, potentially triggering a new wave of upward momentum. Based on the correlation among various assets, the market has already been accumulating this strength.