2026-01-09 07:24:29

Take a look at the signals being sent by the market. Altcoins have already experienced a 21-month golden cross, Bitcoin has completed an annual-level golden cross, and Ethereum is also forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern — all technical indicators are pointing to the same story.

Let's compare this to historical benchmarks. Bitcoin fell from 126,000 to 80,000, a correction of exactly 37%. Looking back at the ledger, the previous two years followed a similar rhythm — first a 30 to 31% drop, then what happened? A three-month surge of 120%, followed by another three months of a 70% rally. Where are we now? Right at the most vigorous phase of the bull market.

Looking at the bigger cycle. In 2017, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies was only 800 billion. By the last few months of the 2021 bull run, it hovered between 500 billion and 800 billion, then shot straight up to 3 trillion. What’s the current level? It’s also at the highest point of the previous bull market. Based on this pattern, starting from the 75 trillion bottom, there’s still room to grow ahead.

Both data and patterns are telling a story, but how the final script unfolds still depends on how funds and policies cooperate.

BTC3,15%

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GhostChainLoyalist

· 01-11 21:42

This technical analysis indeed tells the same story, but I still stick to my point — history may repeat itself, but who knows to what extent this policy disruption will go. Golden cross, head and shoulders bottom are all laid out, the question is when will the funds fully enter the market. Looking at the 7.5 trillion space is indeed tempting, but the prerequisite is that whales are willing to pour money in.

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StakeWhisperer

· 01-10 04:58

Hmm... Golden cross, head and shoulders bottom, I've heard these phrases before last year. And the result? Wait, are you saying we're in a massive rally now? Then what about my short positions...

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LuckyBearDrawer

· 01-09 07:54

Golden cross, head and shoulders bottom, historical reenactment... They all sound right, but I don't know if this time will again be a scythe harvest trap. --- Wait, are you saying we're in the most intense stage right now? Then why am I still losing money? --- The data looks good, but one policy statement can wipe it all out, so I still have to bet on the policy move this round. --- A 37% decline compared to the last time, but I believed the same last time... --- It seems quite logical, but the execution always falls a bit short. --- Starting from a base of 7.5 trillion? I feel like it still has to fall further. --- I've heard this set of arguments before last year, heard it again this year, and probably will next year too.

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MevHunter

· 01-09 07:51

Golden cross, head and shoulders bottom... Starting to talk about technical analysis again. I just want to know when it will really take off. Will history repeat itself? Let's wait and see. Anyway, I still hold my coins. Market cap of 7.5 trillion yuan as a baseline? Just listen, the key is still how the Federal Reserve moves. Good-looking data is good-looking, but I'm worried about the lack of funds. Can this bull market be as crazy as in 2021? It really depends on policy support. I believe in your golden cross, but I trust the speed of a dump even more. Call me when there's a 120% surge. For now, I’ll stay on the sidelines.

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BearMarketLightning

· 01-09 07:47

Historical patterns are so reliable, why am I still trapped inside... --- It's both a golden cross and a head and shoulders bottom, I'm getting tired of hearing about it. The key is whether it can actually go up. --- Wait, if the next three months follow this logic, it should double? Then I might be a bit early to be scared now. --- Funds and policies working together... to put it simply, it's still a gamble. If it doesn't pay off, everything is pointless. --- The idea of 7.5 trillion as a baseline, I feel like something's not quite right. --- It has indeed played out this way in the ledger before, but can this wave really be replicated? I always feel like something's different.

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CommunitySlacker

· 01-09 07:40

Golden cross returns to golden cross, I just want to ask if this time will again be a case of technical deception... History repeating itself sounds nice, but the pits are often dug the deepest.

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DegenWhisperer

· 01-09 07:37

Wait, will history really repeat itself? Why do I feel like I've heard this explanation several times before? No matter how good the signals look, the key is having funds to take over, that's the real deal. It's another golden cross, another head and shoulders bottom. The technicals look good, but I'm just worried that one policy statement could end everything. The 37% correction was quite a drop last time, but now there are more players, can it still be so fierce? Around this time last year, I also heard similar arguments, and everyone knows how it turned out. The article has no problem, but don't treat history like a script; the market never plays by the rules. Starting from a base of 7.5 trillion? That depends on whether the institutions are on board.

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