Is the Bitcoin regulation bill really a "cure-all"? Market analysts reveal the reality

Understanding the Gap Between Expectations and Reality

In the cryptocurrency market, every time a new regulatory framework is announced, investor expectations surge. Especially with U.S. crypto market structure bills like the CLARITY Act, there is a widespread belief that “this will cause Bitcoin prices to skyrocket.” However, seasoned market analyst Peter Brant offers a different perspective.

His stance is clear: Regulatory clarity alone does not guarantee a sustained rise in Bitcoin prices. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90.55K (as of January 9, 2026), but Brant points out that this is not solely determined by the regulatory environment.

Why Does “Sell on News” Occur?

Important regulatory bills like the CLARITY Act are often priced into the market well before actual approval. While investors buy in with high expectations, the moment the bill is actually passed, the market tends to “sell on news.”

According to Brant’s analysis, regulatory green lights certainly encourage institutional investor participation, but this alone only slightly alleviates bearish sentiment. The fundamental price-driving factors are not regulation but actual adoption and usage.

The True Drivers of Bitcoin’s Value

Brant emphasizes the following complex factors:

• Global Value Formation: Bitcoin’s price is determined on the world stage. U.S. regulations are important but only a part of the bigger picture.

• Network Security and Hash Rate: The technical foundation supports Bitcoin’s true value. These operate independently of regulation.

• Organic Adoption by Institutions: It’s not just permission but actual large-scale capital allocation that matters.

• Macroeconomic Environment: Major economic trends like inflation rates and monetary policies influence Bitcoin’s direction.

Warning Signs from Technical Analysis

Interestingly, Brant presented a different view in October 2024. He pointed out similarities between the 1970s soybean market and Bitcoin’s chart patterns, predicting a possible correction to the $60,000 level.

This historical analogy offers important insights. The current Bitcoin environment is influenced not only by regulatory news but also by existing technical pressures and macroeconomic factors. Brant positions the impact of the CLARITY Act as “necessary infrastructure development” within this complex backdrop.

Rebuilding Investment Strategies: The Risks of Relying on a Single Factor

As the crypto market matures, strategies based solely on a single news event are no longer effective. Brant’s recommendations include:

Adjusting Expectations: Do not automatically link regulatory progress with price increases. There is correlation, but not causation.

Continuously Assess Fundamentals: Keep monitoring core indicators such as network security, wallet growth, and actual trading volume.

Construct Multiple Growth Scenarios: Include various catalysts beyond U.S. regulation, such as global adoption acceleration, technological innovation, and changes in the financial system.

This approach helps build a resilient investment thesis that remains stable regardless of regulatory outcomes.

Regulations Are Certainly Necessary but Not a Cure-All

The CLARITY Act will undoubtedly make the U.S. market safer and more structured. It will also enhance consumer protection and clarify the roles of agencies like the SEC and CFTC. Barriers to institutional entry are likely to decrease.

However, Brant’s warning is clear: Regulation is the foundation of the future, not a magic wand for today’s prices. Investors should welcome regulatory progress but avoid expecting immediate significant surges. Instead, they should consider that during the regulatory development process, technical adjustments and short-term volatility are likely to occur.

Key Perspectives Market Participants Should Know

Veteran analysts adopt this cautious view to prevent market psychology from overheating and to promote more rational decision-making. The crypto market is transitioning from early chaotic speculation to applying long-term thinking. In this process, the question of “what fundamentally supports Bitcoin’s value” is becoming increasingly important, beyond mere “news.”