Has Bitcoin truly bid farewell to the bear market? Institutional analysts offer differing opinions

【BlockBeats】Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, there are many optimistic voices in the industry. Many supporters believe that the magic of the four-year cycle has faded, and a new structural upward trend is about to unfold. But is this judgment really justified?

Some macro analysts have offered a different perspective. They point out that while the driving force of the halving cycle may be diminishing, they remain cautious about the statement that “the bear market is over.” There is an important distinction—weakening cycle influence does not mean market volatility will disappear.

From the data, Bitcoin’s current support level is at $65,000 (the previous high point), and according to the power-law trend line, there is also a line at $45,000 below. The gap between these two price levels precisely reflects the market’s uncertainty.

An interesting hypothesis is: if Bitcoin enters a sideways consolidation in the next 12 months, the power-law trend line will gradually approach $65,000, potentially evolving into a “life-and-death line.” Of course, these are speculative scenarios, and whether they will actually happen depends on subsequent market performance.

Rather than blindly optimistic, it is better to maintain reverence for all possibilities. The complexity of the market often exceeds expectations.