Fidelity Global Macro Director: Skeptical of the "Four-Year Cycle End" Theory for Bitcoin; $65,000 Will Be the Trend Bottom

On January 10th, Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer posted that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is more akin to an S-curve similar to the internet’s growth pattern, rather than a power-law curve. Many Bitcoin supporters claim that the four-year cycle has ended and a new structural upward wave is imminent. I am skeptical of this, not because I believe the impact of the halving cycle is weakening (which I agree with), but because I question the notion that a bear market will no longer occur. Currently, Bitcoin’s baseline is $65,000 (its previous high), while the power-law trend line indicates a baseline of $45,000. Although there is still some distance to the target price, if Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase within the next year, the power-law trend line may move closer to $65,000 and could become Bitcoin’s critical threshold. However, this may (or may not) happen in the future (or within the next year).