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Bitcoin is Compressed Below Its Growth Law, and Compression Always Resolves Upward
Bitcoin still obeys a single power law with extraordinary stability (R² ≈ 0.96) across 15+ years bubbles and crashes are oscillations, not regime changes.
• Spot (~$90.5k) is ~25% below power-law fair value (~$120k), placing price in a statistically cheap zone, not a topping structure.
• Every prior deviation of this magnitude resolved upward toward trend, never by trend breaking downward.
• The lower panel shows a classic “market coil”: prolonged negative deviation stores pressure, which historically releases via sharp repricing, not slow drift.
• Structural insight: volatility compresses → pressure accumulates → resolution is nonlinear. Power laws correct violently, not gently.
Bitcoin isn’t stalling it’s coiling below its long-term growth law, and history says resolution comes by price catching up, not the law giving way.