2026-01-10 12:00:14

#美国贸易赤字状况 🌪️ On the Eve of a Macro Shift: Why Are Economic Data and Market Trends Starting to "Go Their Separate Ways"

A recent interesting phenomenon has been repeatedly playing out in the market—US economic data performs poorly, yet the stock market continues to rise. The pressure on the Federal Reserve is also intensifying, and calls for policy shifts are growing louder. Is this ultimately a sign of ample liquidity or a warning of an economic recession?

📊 The Truth Behind the Market Narrative Reversal:
When non-farm employment data falls short of expectations, investors do not panic and sell off; instead, they turn bullish. Weak economic performance is interpreted by the market as a sign of "accelerated rate cuts." Bitcoin, after experiencing short-term volatility, quickly rebounds, demonstrating risk characteristics that are completely different from US stocks. This phenomenon is not new, but each time it challenges market perceptions.

⚠️ On-Chain Data Is Flashing Red Lights:
$BTC is in a period of historically high volatility sensitivity, with multiple on-chain indicators issuing warnings simultaneously—large holder holdings, exchange fund flows, long-term investor distribution—all hinting that the market may be brewing a major directional decision. This is not a low-probability event.

🔮 The interest rate futures market has already played out the 2026 rate cut script in advance, but historical lessons are even more cautionary: investors who prematurely bottom-fish on policy shifts often pay the price when expectations are revised.

💎 The New Era of Game Rules Has Taken Shape:
The interaction between macro policies and the crypto market is becoming increasingly direct. The Fed’s stance, US dollar supply, risk appetite... every variable’s fluctuation can trigger ripple effects in $ETH, $BTC.

On the surface, it looks like a bet on rate cuts, but fundamentally, the market is weighing the true state of economic fundamentals. In this tug-of-war of expectations, will you go with the trend or wait a bit longer?

BTC-2,08%

ETH-1,55%

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UnruggableChad

· 01-13 01:58

The expectation of interest rate cuts is a trick that can always fool a wave of people, truly amazing. I've seen the stock market rise despite poor data too many times. Honestly, it's just gambling on liquidity. With so many red lights on the chain, still rushing in, just wait to be taught a lesson. Rather than guessing about rate cuts, it's better to see how the big players are moving. They are more honest than words. The script for 2026 is already starting. History is about to repeat itself.

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MrRightClick

· 01-11 19:44

Had I known the economic data was a false boom, the crypto circle would have seen through it long ago --- Isn't it supposed to be a recession? Why is it still rising? This script seems a bit off --- On-chain data flashing red lights, I believe it, but I don't know how many times the red light has been on --- Wait, wait, wait, it's bound to fall sooner or later, why rush --- The Fed's recent actions are truly outrageous; cutting rates when the economy is weak—are they trying to rescue the market or commit suicide? --- How is that guy doing now after the policy shift to bottom-fishing? Ask if he's still alive --- Hey, you're right, betting on rate cuts on the surface but actually betting on the economy—what should I do now? --- BTC's quick rebound is a bit fierce; feels like we're going to suffer later --- The interaction between macroeconomics and the crypto world is becoming more and more tight; it feels like being remotely controlled by the Federal Reserve

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LightningWallet

· 01-11 00:28

Rate cut hype is back again, always the same rhetoric... Is this time really different? --- On-chain data flashing red usually means it's too late, big players have already exited --- Basically, the Federal Reserve hasn't moved yet, but the market is already hyped. When they actually cut rates, no one will buy it --- Lesson from history? Laughable. This time it's crazier, retail investors are still dreaming --- If the logic that macro policies directly influence coin prices is valid, then we should follow the Fed's rhythm --- We've seen too many strange phenomena where the stock market rises despite poor economic data, so now I don't really fear much --- Instead of guessing when the rate cut will happen, it's better to watch the movements of ETH and BTC in big wallets --- Wait? What are we waiting for? Not rushing now and waiting for a dip to buy? Human nature --- The rate cut script won't play out until 2026. So what is this rebound now? Preemptive overdraft? --- The fundamental factor is the supply of USD. Without loosening this, everything else is pointless

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gas_fee_therapist

· 01-10 12:30

Here we go again with the "bad news is good news" routine, never changing Interest rate cuts didn't happen, but the coins still rose. Can this time really be different? The historical lessons are right here; those trying to buy the dip are all caught in a trap Basically, it's a gamble on whether the Federal Reserve will change its stance

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HashRateHustler

· 01-10 12:30

The interest rate cut expectation trick is back again. It always rises first and then regrets. Watching BTC rebound makes me want to go all in, but I get trapped. Really? On-chain data flashing red lights? The big players probably sold early, and we're still in the game? Economic data is poor but the stock market rises. I really don't understand this logic; it feels like funds are playing hot potato. But to be honest, by the time the rate cut actually happens, it might be too late. The market's nature... Instead of worrying about macro fundamentals, it's better to directly watch the exchange inflows and outflows—that's the real deal.

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PaperHandSister

· 01-10 12:29

Economic data is bad, yet the stock market is rising instead. I'm already tired of this routine... It's really just relying on liquidity to support it. --- Basically, it's still a bet on interest rate cuts, but many people are betting wrong. --- I'm not that worried about on-chain data flashing red lights. What I fear more is a sudden policy reversal. --- The script for 2026 has already been played out? Fine, I'll just see how many can survive until then. --- Every time it's about "major decisions," but in the end, it's still dancing to the Federal Reserve's rhythm. Any new tricks? --- Instead of fussing over whether interest rates will be cut or not, it's better to figure out whether you're aiming for long-term holding or short-term trading. --- I'm relieved that big players are accumulating chips; they are more afraid of losing money than I am. --- Liquidity is abundant? Ha, you could only believe that half a year ago. --- The most embarrassing time for revised expectations is always when retail investors chase highs... including myself. --- This rebound in BTC is indeed different from the US stock market's pattern, and that's what I find interesting.

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MerkleMaid

· 01-10 12:28

The expectation of interest rate cuts can fool people into entering the market time and time again... Is this really true this time?

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SeeYouInFourYears

· 01-10 12:28

Wait, the economic data is poor but the stock market is rising? Isn't this just crazy pricing in of interest rate cut expectations? It feels a bit too good to be true.

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SchroedingerGas

· 01-10 12:26

Expecting interest rate cuts is a game played every year, and every time someone ends up losing everything... it's about time to wake up --- Big players are quietly offloading, retail investors are still hoping for rate cuts? Haha --- When on-chain data flashes red, it's often a trap to lure more, don't fall for the tricks --- Economic data is poor but the market rises, basically a liquidity trap, let's wait and see --- Is the 2026 script already playing out? Isn't that a bit greedy? --- Instead of guessing what the Federal Reserve will do next, it's better to watch what big wallets are doing --- Every time people say history will repeat itself, then someone dismisses it... quite speechless --- This wave of market movement feels like harvesting those who seem smart --- Those betting on rate cuts all end up trapped, but it's not a big problem --- Poor data, stock market rises, Bitcoin rebounds—does anyone really believe this is the bottom?

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FantasyGuardian

· 01-10 12:10

I'm tired of hearing the same rhetoric about interest rate cuts. Every time it's just hype, and what’s the result? Still repeatedly getting chopped up by the market. --- Big investors are accumulating coins, retail investors are running away. That’s the reality, friends. --- On-chain data flashing red? Come on, they flash red more often than green. Does that have any reference value? --- Policy shift? Wake up, the Federal Reserve isn’t planning to cut rates at all. It’s all market wishful thinking. --- If the game rules really changed, why am I still losing money? Are the rules actually in my favor? --- This is a typical magical market where good news and bad news both cause prices to rise, and bad news even more so. Who the hell can make money? --- Let’s wait and see. I feel like we haven’t hit the bottom yet. --- BTC quick rebound? Ha, lightning crashes just as fast. Watch your step. --- The more direct the interaction between macroeconomics and the crypto world, the more I’m afraid because I’ve never guessed right. --- Using policy shifts as a bottoming signal—how many people have been caught out in the past? Are there still people falling for it now?

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