Recently, a fascinating phenomenon has emerged in the market—shanzhai coins' trading volume share has surpassed 50%, overtaking Bitcoin's 27% and Ethereum's 23%. This data reflects more than just simple trading shifts; it indicates subtle changes in the overall capital flow.

You can feel this heat by looking at the recent top gainers list. XRP rose 5% weekly, BONK surged 28%, SHIB increased 15%, POL skyrocketed 52%, BIFI gained 29%, and even those meme coins with monthly gains of 17,000% are rampant. This is clearly a concentrated outbreak of retail FOMO, as everyone becomes dissatisfied with Bitcoin's oscillation around $90,000 and starts seeking opportunities with tenfold or hundredfold potential.

The Shanzhai Season Index on CMC is currently at 38/100, not yet reaching the true Shanzhai Season level of above 75, but the upward trend is very clear. Historically, whenever Bitcoin consolidates or experiences slight increases, capital outflow effects are most likely to occur—because mainstream coins lack attractiveness, people naturally look for new growth points. Coupled with the slowdown in ETF capital inflows, the appeal of mainstream coins is indeed declining, which is the mechanism behind the rotation of shanzhai coins.

However, the problem is that the hidden risks here are seriously underestimated. The liquidity in the shanzhai coin market is generally poor, with serious control by large players. Rapid gains mean even faster drops. Those coins with monthly gains exceeding ten thousand times are very likely to be schemes designed by early participants; retail investors see the top of the gain list and jump in, effectively taking the bag. The real profit-makers are always those who have been lurking before the market started, not those following the trend after seeing the rankings.

Even more dangerous is that the open interest in futures contracts continues to increase, indicating that more and more people are leveraging. This is both a sign of market greed and a prelude to potential liquidation. Once Bitcoin experiences a significant correction, the decline of shanzhai coins will be double their gains, and high-leverage traders will face a chain of liquidations. Therefore, participating in this wave requires setting proper stop-losses and not fantasizing about perpetual gains.

It should be noted that not all shanzhai coins' gains lack fundamentals. POL's 52% increase is supported by Layer 2 technology upgrades, which are real progress; XRP's approval of an ETF is also a genuine positive. But coins like BONK and SHIB are purely meme tokens, their movements entirely driven by community hype, with no intrinsic value support. This kind of play is like passing the drum—ultimately, those who get out first are not the latecomers.