Market Overview Today: 98k has reached multiple critical points... ( one)

Funding situation, yesterday was still very hot... Behind Coinbase spot CVD net buy of over 1000, ETF is also at 8 billion...

However, around 97~98k, sell orders are surging, showing signs that buy orders are being absorbed by sell orders (as I wrote yesterday)

Moreover, after the sell orders above 98k concentrated on Coinbase appeared, Coinbase's CVD also started a downward trend for the first time this week (some positions are taking profits)
(Figure 1, Figure 2)

98k is a major point of divergence... (Figure 3)
1. From the candlestick chart, 98~99k is where the price completely broke below 100K on November 14, with several rapid dips... It is also the consensus bottom after the spike to 10.11K.

So after several dips to 99k, there are a lot of bottom-fishing positions... Once it breaks below completely, it becomes a classic medium-to-long-term trap — leading to support and resistance switching...
The strength of the bottom-fishing consensus at that time determines how much pressure there is to unwind the trapped positions now.

(Think back, when it was over 8W, how many people said they would sell out once it returned to 9W8 or 10W?)

2. From the volume distribution... After 10.11, 98k is currently a volume vacuum zone... almost no turnover (because when it broke below 10W, it dipped from 99k to 96k so smoothly)

This volume imbalance indicates a future need for rebalancing (meaning sideways trading here to reach a new consensus between bulls and bears) — trapped positions are handing over chips to new buyers.

3. On-chain, this is also the average cost line for short-term holders...
Refer to @Murphychen888's post yesterday.

The current order book and turnover situation align with the above 98k trend... Trapped positions want to exit, reflected in the large sell orders at 98k.
(Both visible and hidden; the visible are those in Figure 2's order book, the hidden are the large CVD absorption I found yesterday around 97k)

So, moving forward today, it’s still very hard to judge... Everything depends on the US market's funding situation, whether Thursday and Friday in the US market will be quiet or active...

For example, yesterday, technical indicators suggested sideways or a pullback, but the US market directly FOMOed in 800 million (BlackRock alone put in 600 million), and the price continued upward...

Even now, although both order book and technicals suggest sideways trading or a pullback, what if today again sees 800 million?

If the US market is quiet today, then it might just maintain a range-bound oscillation... If it continues, then another 800 million could test 100K.

The only thing that can be preliminarily judged is Coinbase's CVD during the midnight hours in the US... Yesterday, it was continuously TWAP buying overnight, so 800 million entered after dawn.
Today, during the midnight hours, it has been slowly selling, which may indicate that US buying pressure could decrease today? We’ll only know once the market opens...

At least from GEX, today’s data clears the way for 100K — 98k is negative gamma, and 100k has very large negative gamma. That means if the funding continues to buy upward, options writers won’t block the move but will support it... This scenario of rapid acceleration still exists in GEX...