January 21 BTC Technical Analysis

- Core conclusion: Daily chart is bearish, short-term weak oscillation; watch for breakthroughs/breakdowns of key support and resistance levels. If rebound is weak, the downtrend will continue.
- Current price: $88,950 (24h range $87,902-$92,501, down -3.83%).

Key Levels and Indicators

- Daily: Price broke below EMA20 ($91,890) and the 100-day moving average, RSI at 41.81 indicating neutral to weak momentum, MACD dead cross with increasing volume, trend weakening.
- 12h: Retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $87,200, combined with weekly moving averages support, possible short-term rebound.
- 4h: Bullish candle indicating stabilization, minor consolidation and correction needed, but rebound strength limited.

Support and Resistance (Key Levels)

- Support: $87,200 (strong, 0.618 retracement + moving averages), $85,000 (strong, previous high-volume trading zone).
- Resistance: $91,890 (strong, EMA20), $95,000-$96,000 (strong, previous high levels).

Trading Strategies (Actionable)

- Short strategy: Rebound near $91,500-$91,800, scale into short positions, stop loss at $92,500, target $88,000-$87,200, break below targets $85,000.
- Long strategy: Stabilize at $87,200-$87,500 (e.g., 4h bullish close with volume), try small long positions, stop loss at $86,500, target $89,500-$90,000, exit on resistance.
- Position sizing and risk control: Total position ≤30%, individual stop loss ≤2%, strictly follow, avoid chasing highs and panic selling.

Market Evolution Scenarios

- Optimistic: Hold above $91,890 with volume increase, return to $92,000-$94,000 range for consolidation.
- Neutral: Weak oscillation between $87,200-$91,890, waiting for direction.
- Pessimistic: Break below $87,200 with volume, test $85,000, possibly test $80,000-$82,000.