Investment Opportunities in Dalio's View: Mining Hard Currencies During Debt Crises

Bridgewater founder Dalio recently stated at Abu Dhabi Finance Week that major global economies are facing unprecedented debt challenges, which will profoundly impact future investment strategies. In response to this situation, Dalio proposed a systematic investment philosophy emphasizing that investors should free themselves from short-term volatility and focus on long-term major trends.

Global Debt Surge Sends Warning Signals

Dalio bluntly said during the forum, “We are about to face a debt and currency crisis.” He further pointed out that, aside from Germany, the debt burdens of major countries worldwide are increasing at an unsustainable rate. According to Dalio’s analysis, in the coming years, these countries are bound to fall into debt crises, which will be accompanied by significant declines in currency values.

Against this backdrop, Dalio advised avoiding traditional debt assets like bonds and instead allocating to gold or Bitcoin—hard currencies supported by physical assets or scarcity with limited supply. Recently, both gold and Bitcoin hit all-time highs, becoming the market’s preferred safe havens. Among them, Bitcoin has performed especially well amid rising economic uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions, currently fluctuating around $90,000, reflecting market enthusiasm for hard currencies.

Five Major Forces Reshaping Global Landscape: Dalio’s Systematic Analysis

Dalio believes that the future global landscape will be driven by five core forces, with “debt, currency, and economy” being just one of them. The other four key factors he listed are:

Domestic Political Order: Political turmoil caused by wealth disparity and divergent values will become more frequent, directly influencing policy directions and economic decision-making.

International Geopolitical Order: Power struggles among nations, especially tensions between major powers, will profoundly reshape the global economic pattern and resource allocation.

Impacts of Natural Forces: Droughts, floods, pandemics, and climate change are intensifying natural disasters, becoming unavoidable challenges for humanity, and affecting corporate operations and investment returns.

Disruptive Technological Innovation: The birth and application of new technologies will continue to reshape the world, changing our lifestyles and economic structures. Therefore, Dalio prefers investing in companies that “leverage technology to enhance business efficiency” rather than those relying solely on traditional product sales and services.

Beyond Short-Term Fluctuations: Dalio Emphasizes Long-Term Investment Strategies

Since fully stepping down from the management of Bridgewater in October 2022, Dalio still guides the fund’s investment strategy planning team. During this forum, he reminded investors not to be led astray by short-term news fluctuations but to focus on long-term major trends.

Dalio emphasized that investment strategies should combine a global perspective with tactical flexibility, fully aware that future uncertainties far exceed our current control. He believes that “diversification” and “functionality” are essential elements of a portfolio. Only through this can investors navigate the intertwined threats and opportunities, achieving long-term wealth growth. This is the core of Dalio’s investment philosophy—both to grasp macro trends and to cautiously manage risks.